The Minnesota Twins (+100) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-120) on Monday, July 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.

This season, the Twins are 58-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 51-54 ATS.

Twins vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Twins starting pitcher: Simeon Woods Richardson 3-1, 3.30 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 5-6, 3.99 ERA

Twins vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Twins vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:

• Christian Vazquez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 23 games (+20.00 Units / 87% ROI)
• Max Kepler has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+10.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.00 Units / 22% ROI)
• Max Kepler has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+9.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 32 games (+8.90 Units / 20% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 22 games (+27.00 Units / 123% ROI)
• Tyrone Taylor has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+12.80 Units / 53% ROI)
• Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+12.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 12 games (+12.40 Units / 66% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.45 Units / 92% ROI)

Twins Best Bets Today:

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.95 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 51 of their last 84 games (+8.00 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+2.10 Units / 33% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 59 of their last 96 games (+15.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 46 games (+14.20 Units / 23% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+10.50 Units / 15% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+9.95 Units / 36% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 47 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI)

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Twins are 50-54 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.79% ROI).

• 58-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -0.65% ROI
• 53-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.55 Units / 1.37% ROI
• 47-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.5 Units / -10.12% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 51-54 against the Run Line (-5.15 Units / -3.85% ROI).

• 55-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 0.99% ROI
• 55-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.3 Units / 4.63% ROI
• 45-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.75 Units / -13.14% ROI

Mets vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .432 (16 GB hits out of 37 GBs) against Simeon Woods Richardson with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .258 — first Percentile.

Simeon Woods Richardson has walked 3 of 75 batters (4%) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.

Simeon Woods Richardson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .285 (37 Total Bases / 130 ABs) on fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: .428 — 98th Percentile.

Simeon Woods Richardson has a first-pitch strike rate of 80% (16/20) over the past seven days (1 games) — highest among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jose Quintana has a strikeout rate of just 12% (9 SO in 76 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.

11 of Jose Quintana’s 33 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 98th Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 59% (1,056/1,775) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.

Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 57% (497/872) in two strike counts since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

  
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