The New York Yankees (-115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-105) on Sunday, July 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.

This season, the Yankees are 61-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 48-55 ATS.

Yankees vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

• Yankees starting pitcher: Carlos Rodon 10-7, 4.25 ERA
• Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 8-6, 2.70 ERA

Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:

• Austin Wells has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 away games (+21.80 Units / 182% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 44 games (+16.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+15.20 Units / 31% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 33 games (+13.70 Units / 34% ROI)
• Ben Rice has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.30 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 29 games (+24.10 Units / 83% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+14.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+14.50 Units / 38% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 45 games (+13.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Romy Gonzalez has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.50 Units / 42% ROI)

Yankees Best Bets Today:

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 49 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 40 of their last 72 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 49 of their last 83 games (+11.49 Units / 12% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 72 games (+7.00 Units / 8% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 56 away games (+6.80 Units / 10% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 60 games (+12.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+9.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games at home (+8.75 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 33 games at home (+8.05 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 54 of their last 103 games (+7.35 Units / 5% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 55-51 against the Run Line (+10.1 Units / 8.08% ROI).

• 61-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -1.95% ROI
• 56-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +5 Units / 4.28% ROI
• 46-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.5 Units / -13.32% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 48-55 against the Run Line (-14.7 Units / -10.74% ROI).

• 55-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 0.74% ROI
• 50-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.35 Units / -2.08% ROI
• 48-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -5.95% ROI

Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Carlos Rodon has an ERA of 7.91 (33.0 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.74 — third Percentile.

Carlos Rodon has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (83 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total IP; League Avg: 80.8

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (108/318) against Carlos Rodon this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (66/173) against Carlos Rodon this month (4 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .261 (64 Total Bases / 245 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .400 — 97th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (111/191) against Tanner Houck this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .457 (180 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .678 — 97th Percentile.

Tanner Houck has thrown off-speed pitches 77% of the time (756/984) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

  
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