The Miami Marlins (+185) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-225) on Friday, July 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Marlins are 37-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 54-48 ATS.
Marlins vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-9, 4.61 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 6-5, 3.91 ERA
Marlins vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 64.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+20.60 Units / 515% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 away games (+16.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+15.60 Units / 74% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 21 games (+12.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.90 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 18 games at home (+14.40 Units / 80% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+12.25 Units / 49% ROI)
- Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+11.45 Units / 32% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 44 away games (+16.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+12.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 44 away games (+10.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.25 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 46% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 34 games at home (+11.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 59 of their last 102 games (+11.75 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+10.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 102 games (+10.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 48-55 against the Run Line (-23.01 Units / -16.87% ROI).
- 37-66 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.35 Units / -18.64% ROI
- 56-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.1 Units / 6.24% ROI
- 45-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.7 Units / -13.9% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 54-48 against the Run Line (+3.4 Units / 2.52% ROI).
- 59-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.75 Units / 9.15% ROI
- 54-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.35 Units / 6.6% ROI
- 43-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.6 Units / -14.69% ROI
Brewers vs Marlins Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Brewers vs Marlins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Joey Ortiz (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Brewers vs Marlins RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Gary Sanchez (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Marlins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Freddy Peralta (MIL) | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -150 |
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 50% (183/369) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .440 (184 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 170 total IP; League Avg: .322 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 33% of Trevor Rogers’ breaking pitches (120/369) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 27% (73/268) against Trevor Rogers on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 31% (141 SO in 449 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .259 (42 Total Bases / 162 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 — 98th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strikeout rate of 32% (146 SO in 450 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 96th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (387/662) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.