The Philadelphia Phillies (-115) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-105) on Monday, July 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Phillies are 63-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 46-52 ATS.
Phillies vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 10-4, 2.79 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 8-5, 4.14 ERA
Phillies vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Phillies vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s MLB game with 58.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+11.75 Units / 42% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Edouard Julien has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.95 Units / 41% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 55 of their last 82 games (+22.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 55 of their last 84 games (+22.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 81 games (+15.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 82 games (+13.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 83 games (+11.30 Units / 8% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games at home (+11.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 22 games (+6.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 78 games (+6.00 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 52-47 against the Run Line (+4.35 Units / 3.66% ROI).
- 63-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.85 Units / 4.79% ROI
- 44-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -10.54% ROI
- 50-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.5 Units / 1.39% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 46-52 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -5.48% ROI).
- 54-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -2.13% ROI
- 49-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.25 Units / -0.23% ROI
- 45-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -8.55% ROI
Twins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Twins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Brooks Lee (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Twins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Twins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Bailey Ober (MIN) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -150 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (61/103) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (227/377) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .151 (8-for-53) against Ranger Suarez’s elevated fastball this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .209 — 89th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .181 (39 Total Bases / 215 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .257 — 94th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (31/103) against Bailey Ober in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — third Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .613 (46 Total Bases / 75 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .355 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .153 (24-for-157) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 98th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has a strikeout rate of 42% (48 SO in 113 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 86th Percentile.