The New York Mets (-145) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+120) on Monday, July 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.

This season, the Mets are 50-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-54 ATS.

Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 4-0, 3.12 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Yonny Chirinos 0-1, 6.01 ERA

Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 61.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
• J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+22.20 Units / 202% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 89 games (+17.25 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games (+10.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 43 away games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 games (+5.70 Units / 8% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 52 games at home (+16.50 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+14.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 94 games (+12.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 games at home (+3.80 Units / 10% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 46-52 against the Run Line (-8.9 Units / -7.1% ROI).

• 50-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -1.87% ROI
• 51-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.6 Units / 4.31% ROI
• 42-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.35 Units / -12.77% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 45-54 against the Run Line (-24.86 Units / -18.9% ROI).

• 35-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.05 Units / -20.01% ROI
• 52-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 2.84% ROI
• 45-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.35 Units / -10.45% ROI

Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

David Peterson has a strike rate of just 61% (2,076/3,417) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 55% (84/153) against David Peterson on sliders since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (31/51) against David Peterson this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.

David Peterson has walked 91 of 848 right-handed batters (11%) since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 168 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Yonny Chirinos has allowed an OPS of .847 (484 PA’s) since last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: .724 — third Percentile.

Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of 55% (41/74) against Yonny Chirinos on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .459 (34-for-74) against Yonny Chirinos on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: .343 — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .286 (125-for-437) against Yonny Chirinos since last season — tied for 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: .247 — sixth Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

  
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