The New York Mets (-150) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+125) on Sunday, July 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Mets are 50-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 44-54 ATS.
Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mets starting pitcher: Christian Scott 0-2, 4.40 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers 1-9, 4.74 ERA
Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 58.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+25.20 Units / 315% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+14.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 41 games (+14.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.60 Units / 82% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+22.20 Units / 202% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+18.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jazz Chisholm has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 38 games (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+9.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+9.55 Units / 30% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 88 games (+18.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 38 games (+12.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 42 away games (+11.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 49 games (+7.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 39 games (+5.65 Units / 12% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 51 games at home (+17.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+15.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 93 games (+13.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 34 games at home (+2.60 Units / 7% ROI)
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 46-51 against the Run Line (-7.9 Units / -6.36% ROI).
- 50-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -0.64% ROI
- 51-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.7 Units / 5.4% ROI
- 41-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.35 Units / -13.87% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 44-54 against the Run Line (-25.86 Units / -19.86% ROI).
- 34-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.25 Units / -21.35% ROI
- 52-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.2 Units / 3.88% ROI
- 44-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.35 Units / -11.49% ROI
Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Luis Torrens (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Bryan De La Cruz (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Christian Scott (NYM) | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Trevor Rogers (MIA) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Christian Scott has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to May 24th — tied with Michael Lorenzen and Ben Lively for the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Christian Scott has allowed a slugging percentage of .722 (26 Total Bases / 36 ABs) vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .404 — fifth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (4/18) against Christian Scott in his last two starts — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .115 (3-for-26) against Christian Scott when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — 93rd Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has allowed three-ball counts to 37% of batters they faced (23/62 PA’s) this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — second Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed an OBP of .319 (210 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 28% (73/260) against Trevor Rogers on low breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has a strike rate of just 50% (177/356) on sliders this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.