Best MLB prop bet for today 7/20: Reese Olson pitches well vs Toronto

There are several intriguing matchups on today’s MLB slate, but there is one spot standing out to me among the rest from a betting perspective. Let’s dive in!

Reese Olson (DET) under 5.5 hits allowed (-120)

Reese Olson has had a very solid season for the Detroit Tigers in 2024, allowing a 3.30 ERA through his first 18 starts. His 101 innings of work are already approaching his MLB total of 103.2 last season, and he will look to build upon his strong sophomore campaign in the 2nd half. He starts his 2nd half against a Toronto lineup that is without Bo Bichette. Bichette left yesterday’s game with an injury and will leave an already inconsistent lineup even more depleted. Toronto has been just below league average against right-handed pitching this season, and at times their offense can be muted by competent pitching. Olson enters this game having allowed 5 or fewer hits in 12 of his 18 outings this season including 8 of his 10 road starts. While the right-hander does allow an above-average rate of hard contact, he is a ground ball specialist who can afford to surrender hard contact into the ground. With an 86th percentile ground ball rate on the season, I expect a fair share of easy outs for his defense.

Olson has been particularly tough on right-handed batters this season, holding hitters from that side of the plate to a .221 AVG and .559 OPS through 190 PA. Toronto’s lineup features 6 right-handed hitters today with 2 of the lefties hitting at the bottom of the order. This should allow his sinker slider combination to take full effect against the righties, a combo that has been successful for him this season. That slider in particular has been lights out, holding right-handed hitters to a .098 AVG and .177 wOBA while generating a 50% whiff rate. Toronto ranks just 21st in hard-hit rate against RHP this season, and in 28 combined PA against Olson, Toronto hitters have only 2 hits recorded. Not only has Olson been staying under this line regularly this season, but with extended rest from the all-star break and a rested bullpen behind him we could see his workload built back up slowly. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Olson pulled after around 80-85 pitches or 5 solid inn ings, giving this under even more possible value.