The San Diego Padres (+) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+) on Saturday, July 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.

This season, the Padres are 50-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 49-47 ATS.

Padres vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Dylan Cease 8-8, 4.00 ERA
• Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 0-1, 3.77 ERA

Padres vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.05 Units / 39% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 games (+37.00 Units / 231% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+19.65 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 26 of his last 43 games (+15.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 50% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games (+11.40 Units / 55% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 46 away games (+12.10 Units / 20% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 away games (+9.80 Units / 52% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.45 Units / 31% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+3.25 Units / 39% ROI)

Guardians Best Bets Today:

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 37 games at home (+15.95 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 37 games at home (+14.35 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 57 of their last 96 games (+14.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 38 games at home (+12.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+11.40 Units / 27% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 49-51 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -0.6% ROI).

• 50-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.55 Units / -7.39% ROI
• 53-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.85 Units / 2.61% ROI
• 46-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.7 Units / -11.44% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 49-47 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 4.76% ROI).

• 59-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.92 Units / 11.82% ROI
• 47-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.5 Units / -0.47% ROI
• 43-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.55 Units / -8.14% ROI

Guardians vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Guardians vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .199 (133-for-670) against Dylan Cease when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 100th Percentile.

Dylan Cease has walked 80 of 763 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.

Dylan Cease has thrown breaking pitches 55% of the time (4,605/8,367) since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Dylan Cease has struck out 42% (11/26) of left-handed batters he faced in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 73% (11/15) against Gavin Williams in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.

Gavin Williams has not allowed a HR in any of his last four starts dating back to September 17th, 2023 — Scott Alexander has the longest active streak at 13.

Gavin Williams has a strikeout rate of just 14% (9 SO in 62 PAs) this month (3 games) — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — seventh Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (8/26) against Gavin Williams this month (3 games) — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 14th Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

  
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