Pittsburgh Pirates RHP Paul Skenes took center stage in the 2024 All-Star Game, pitching a perfect 1st inning. The rookie phenom hit 100 mph twice. He is 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and a 12.1 K/9 over 11 starts this season. His 4-seam fastball is averaging an absurd 99.1 mph.
As such, Skenes is a massive favorite (-1200) to win NL Rookie of the Year, per BetMGM Sportsbook. There is some serious risk here, though. He has thrown 66 1/3 innings in the majors, 27 1/3 innings in the minors (Triple-A Indianapolis) and another inning in the All-Star Game for a total of 94 2/3 innings since March 30 — and we’re not even counting spring training.
He threw 136 innings between his senior season at LSU and the minor leagues last year. So, realistically, we’re looking at a 145-150 inning limit, which leaves him with roughly 50-55 innings to go.
One more thing to consider, Skenes has had a heavy pitch count through his 11 starts, averaging 97.4 pitches per outing with 4 eclipsing 100. That could lead the Pirates to limit his innings even more. The Pirates are just 1.5 games back from a Wild Card spot, which means they could skip him more frequently after the All-Star break so he’s available down the stretch. That could lead to a dip in production.