The Kansas City Royals (+110) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-130) on Saturday, July 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.

This season, the Royals are 52-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 44-49 ATS.

Royals vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

• Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 11-3, 2.20 ERA
• Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 5-7, 3.25 ERA

Royals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Royals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:

• Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 31 games (+18.25 Units / 37% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)
• Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+14.65 Units / 46% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.85 Units / 32% ROI)
• Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+11.70 Units / 55% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 27 of his last 39 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
• Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 37 games (+11.95 Units / 32% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.75 Units / 53% ROI)
• Wilyer Abreu has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)

Royals Best Bets Today:

• The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 91 games (+8.49 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+8.00 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 40% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 72 games (+3.25 Units / 4% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+11.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.20 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+7.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+4.70 Units / 18% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 54-41 against the Run Line (+4.89 Units / 3.74% ROI).

• 52-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.05 Units / 7.03% ROI
• 40-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -16 Units / -15.5% ROI
• 51-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.8 Units / 6.56% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 44-49 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -9.07% ROI).

• 51-42 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.25 Units / 3.67% ROI
• 44-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.95 Units / -3.87% ROI
• 44-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.2 Units / -4.1% ROI

Red Sox vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Seth Lugo has thrown breaking pitches 48% of the time (521/1,093) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 96th Percentile.

Seth Lugo has an average spin rate of 3228.6 RPM on curveballs since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: 2525.2 — 100th Percentile.

12 of Seth Lugo’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor this season — tied for 4th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 95th Percentile.

Seth Lugo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .227 (15 Total Bases / 66 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .358 — 88th Percentile.

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kutter Crawford has a strike rate of 79% (111/140) in his last two starts — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Kutter Crawford has a strike rate of 79% (111/140) this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (33/106) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season — tied for 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — sixth Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 20% (9/46) against Kutter Crawford when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 0 Percentile.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

  
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