Today's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Thursday's Best Baseball Prop Bets

Do you hear that? It's the crack of Shohei Ohtani's bat as he smashes yet another home run, this time as the Los Angeles Dodgers take on the Philadelphia Phillies at 6:05 p.m. ET, at least that's what I'm banking on as part of today's MLB player props. 

Beyond the MLB MVP odds favorite in the NL, Thursday's slate is full of All-Star talent. The Pittsburgh Pirates play the Milwaukee Brewer at 2:10 p.m. ET with Bryan Reynolds poised for a big afternoon, and then Heliot Ramos and the San Francisco Giants go head-to-head with the Toronto Blue Jays.

My final player prop of the day focuses on the Houston Astros as they look to bolster their World Series odds in a matchup with the Miami Marlins at 8:10 p.m. ET.

Thursday's MLB expert picks

MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confiden ce based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

• Bryan Reynolds Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-120 via BetMGM) ????
• Helio Ramos Over 1.5 total bases (+140 via bet365) ????
• Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 home runs (+200 via FanDuel) ??
• Jose Altuve Over 0.5 runs scored (-106 via Caesars) ????

MLB player props

Game info: Pirates vs. Brewers | Moneyline: Pirates (-120 via bet365) | Total: Over 8 (+100)/Under 8 (-120) via bet365 | Start time: 2:10 p.m. ET

Paul Skenes this, Paul Skenes that. The MLB Rookie of the Year odds leader in the NL gets all the attention when talking about the Pirates, but Bryan Reynolds has been doing his best Andrew McCutchen impersonation the last two months and just earned an All-Star nod.

With Reynolds slashing .324/.359/.649 in July and putting up 88 total bases since the start of June, he should be the catalyst for Pittsburgh's offense against Brewers' starter Aaron Civale. Civale has allowed five home runs in his last three starts and Reynolds hits his stuff well.

With the now two-time All-Star batting .333-plus with a better than .550 SLG against Civale's top two pitches, I trust he'll keep up his pace fr om the last two months of averaging 2.7 runs, hits, and RBIs per game. A $10 winning bet pays an $8.33 profit.

Best odds: -120 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 54.64%

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Game info: Blue Jays vs. Giants | Moneyline: Giants (-120 via bet365) | Total: Over 8 (+100)/Under 8 (-120) via bet365 | Start time: 3:45 p.m. ET

Despite not playing a game prior to May 8, Ramos just earned his first All-Star appearance thanks to how sizzling hot his bat has been since the start of June. After smashing eight dingers last month and putting up 64 total bases in 27 games, he's somehow been better in July.

Ramos is slashing .344/.400/.656 this month, which is why I was so surprised by these odds from bet365. Ramos is averaging 2.5 total bases per game since the start of June, but a $10 bet on these odds still pays a $14 profit. Talk about value.

With Kevin Gausman taking the mound for Toronto – having allowed nine homers in his last seven starts – I'm expecting a big performance for Ramos. Gausman leans he avily on his four-seamer (53%) and there's not a pitch Ramos would rather see. He's batting .344 with a .690 xSLG against them.

Best odds: +140 via bet365 | Implied probability: 41.67%

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Game info: Dodgers vs. Phillies | Moneyline: Phillies (-150 via bet365) | Total: Over 9 (-120)/Under 9 (+100) via bet365 | Start time: 6:05 p.m. ET

Having earned his fourth straight All-Star selection and while continuing to be the scariest threat at the plate for pitchers across MLB, I'm going big with Ohtani. He's slashing .333/.429/.633 this month and just hit 12 homers in 26 games in June.

He has the second-highest SLG in the league (.635) and second-most homers (28) with 15 of them coming in his last 36 games. And with Aaron Nola taking the mound for the Phillies, I'm expecting Ohtani to add to that total. Nola has allowed the 14th-most homers in baseball (15) and nine have come in his last nine starts.

Making matters worse for Nola, Ohtani is batting .318 with a .794 xSLG off four-seamers and .397 with a .65 1 SLG against sinkers – two of Nola's top three pitches. Even placing just half a unit ($5) on this prop yields a $10 profit.

Best odds: +200 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 33.33%

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Game info: Marlins vs. Astros | Moneyline: Astros (-160 via bet365) | Total: Over 8.5 (-120)/Under 8.5 (+100) via bet365 | Start time: 8:10 p.m. ET

Still missing Kyle Tucker, and having Yordan Alvarez exit Wednesday's game due to hip tightness, there's even more pressure on Jose Altuve than usual. With his ninth All-Star selection under his belt, Altuve looks closer to 24 than 34 the way he's been playing.

The Astros' star is slashing .367/.424/.400 this month with five runs in seven games. Getting on base has been no problem for Altuve, and with a team that leads the league in batting average behind him (.264), I expect him to score for the 16th time in 20 games.

It helps that the Marlins are putting Roddery Munoz on the mound, he's allowed 15 homers in just nine games this season. Altuve's also batti ng better than .300 against three of his top four pitches. A $10 winning bet on this prop pays a $9.43 profit.

Best odds: -106 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.46%

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MLB player props made Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

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