The Pittsburgh Pirates (-130) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+110) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.

This season, the Pirates are 44-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 48-45 ATS.

Pirates vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 5-0, 2.13 ERA
• Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 2-6, 5.19 ERA

Pirates vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Sal Frelick has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 12 games at home (+16.00 Units / 133% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+12.50 Units / 60% ROI)
• Willy Adames has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+12.50 Units / 49% ROI)
• Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 38% ROI)
• William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 81 games (+16.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 48 games (+10.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 48 games (+9.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 53 games (+7.75 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+7.25 Units / 22% ROI)

Brewers Best Bets Today:

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 30 games at home (+13.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+11.80 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 89 games (+11.10 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 49-43 against the Run Line (+2.66 Units / 2.21% ROI).

• 44-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -5.28% ROI
• 43-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -5.98% ROI
• 45-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.32 Units / -1.31% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 48-45 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.29% ROI).

• 54-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.35 Units / 10.6% ROI
• 50-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.9 Units / 8.75% ROI
• 38-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.95 Units / -16.47% ROI

Brewers vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Brewers vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (17/29) against Paul Skenes in his last two starts — 4th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.

Paul Skenes has not allowed a walk in his last 70 PAs against a RHH dating back to June 5th — Jon Gray has the longest active streak at 149.

Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 53% (8 SO in 15 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game in his last two starts — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.

Paul Skenes has thrown off-speed pitches 86% of the time (43/50) on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days — highest among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.

Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Civale has allowed a slugging percentage of .540 (81 Total Bases / 150 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (91/275) against Aaron Civale this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.

Aaron Civale has located his pitches away 58% of the time (188/324) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Civale has located his pitches away 58% of the time (175/303) when behind in the count this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

  
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