Sunday’s slate of MLB action includes all 30 teams as always, and there are several matchups that could end up being the best game of the day. From a betting perspective I am going to target an undervalued offense that is in an advantageous matchup. Let’s discuss the matchup between the San Diego Padres and Ryne Nelson!
San Diego Padres first 7 innings team total over 3.5 (+100)
The San Diego Padres are still without Fernando Tatis Jr. who exited their game on June 21 when he was hit by a pitch. Still, this Padres lineup has been performing extremely well since his absence began, especially against right-handed pitching. Since June 21 the Padres rank 5th in wOBA with a 127 wRC+ against right-handers, and they profile extremely well for today’s matchup in my opinion. San Diego is an aggressive team offensively, recording the league’s 6th highest swing rate with the 2nd highest zone contact rate since the Tatis Jr. injury. In that span they have the lowest BB% the 2nd lowest K% against righties which is leading to a ton of balls in play. A matchup against Ryne Nelson should continue that trend.
Nelson ranks 79th percentile with his low 5.8% walk rate, as his zone rate sits 5% higher than league average and ranks 7th highest among qualified pitchers. He pounds the zone with regularity but doesn’t have the stuff to consistency succeed with that approach. His low 18.2% whiff rate ranks just 5th percentile and with a batted ball profile including a 22nd percentile hard-hit rate and 19th percentile barrel rate, Nelson often runs into trouble against quality lineups. His xBA of .293 sits just 5th percentile and his struggles have been evident against either handedness of batter. Overall, Nelson has posted a 4.97 xERA and 4.64 xFIP, and he now draws a matchup he has performed poorly in already twice this season.