The Arizona Diamondbacks (+100) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-120) on Saturday, July 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 43-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 48-44 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt 3-6, 4.26 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 5-7, 3.57 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 52.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Walker has hit the Walks Under in 32 of his last 37 games (+22.05 Units / 29% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+15.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+12.15 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 14 games (+37.30 Units / 266% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+13.55 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+11.50 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kyle Higashioka has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+11.20 Units / 140% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 32 games (+11.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 19 of their last 30 away games (+6.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 45 away games (+6.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.05 Units / 40% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 15 games at home (+11.80 Units / 70% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+9.95 Units / 55% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games at home (+9.85 Units / 65% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 games (+8.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+7.95 Units / 50% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 42-46 against the Run Line (-10.1 Units / -8.72% ROI).
- 43-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.15 Units / -5.57% ROI
- 45-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -0.36% ROI
- 41-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.95 Units / -8.28% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 48-44 against the Run Line (+5.85 Units / 5.08% ROI).
- 49-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -1.55% ROI
- 49-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.3 Units / 3.29% ROI
- 42-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.45 Units / -12.16% ROI
Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (ARI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Matt Waldron (SD) | 3.5 -185 | 3.5 +140 |
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Pfaadt has a first-pitch strike rate of 72% (307/426) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Brandon Pfaadt allowed a batting average of just .181 vs right-handed batters (tied for eighth best)– 90th Percentile and .299 vs left-handed batters this season (third worst among qualified SPs)– fifth Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .299 (59-for-197) against Brandon Pfaadt this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — fifth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .294 (15-for-51) against Brandon Pfaadt’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .210 — 13th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Waldron has allowed a just .277 SLG vs right-handed batters (fifth best)– 94th Percentile and .467 vs left-handed batters this season (10th worst among qualified SPs)– 19th Percentile.
Matt Waldron has allowed a slugging percentage of just .146 (15 Total Bases / 103 ABs) versus the bottom of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .341 — 100th Percentile.
Matt Waldron has allowed an OPS of just .529 (187 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .662 — 92nd Percentile.
Matt Waldron has thrown off-speed pitches 62% of the time (242/393) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.