Best MLB player prop bet for today 7/6: Great matchup for Garrett Crochet

Saturday’s slate of MLB action is surely going to be an entertaining one given the number of games and the matchups at hand, but my focus is once against on Chicago White Sox starter Garrett Crochet from a betting perspective. I targeted Crochet and his command of the strike zone last week in this article and am doing so once again in an ideal matchup this week. Let’s dive in!

Garrett Crochet (CWS) under 1.5 walks allowed (-145)

We got this same prop at a -110 price last weekend, and despite the books beginning to adjust their view of Garrett Crochet there is still a ton of value given the matchup against Miami today. Crochet has displayed elite command of the strike zone this season in his first year as a starter. The southpaw hurler has issued walks to just 5.0% of the batters he has faced this year, ranking him 90th percentile in that metric. He hammers the zone with consistency, registering the 11th highest zone rate and the 14th highest overall strike rate among qualified pitchers. This has resulted in 1 or 0 walks allowed in 12 of his 18 starts this season, including back-to-back outings without a walk allowed. He had a great matchup for limiting free passes in his last start against Colorado, but he draws an even better matchup today against the Miami Marlins.

No team in baseball has a higher swing rate this season than Miami. Their 52.2% swing rate is 1% higher than the next closest team, and that mark jumps to 54.1% when isolating the last 30 days. Their aggressive approach limits strikeouts, but also leads to a ton of quick plate appearances. As a team they rank 2nd behind Houston for the fewest pitches per plate appearance this season, and their first pitch swing rate is the highest in the sport. With Crochet’s ability to generate strikes both in and out of the zone, the left-hander should be able to jump ahead and remain ahead in counts throughout this game. Miami has been extremely walk-averse when facing left-handers this season, walking at just a 5.4% clip, 0.9% below the next closest team. Their .264 wOBA is also by far the worst mark against southpaw pitchers this season. In the last 30 days they have seen their walk rate against lefties dip even further to just 5.0%. 5 of the last 7, and 10 of the last 14 left-handed st arting pitchers to face the Marlins have issued 1 or 0 walks, and with Crochet’s command I expect that to continue today.