The Philadelphia Phillies (-130) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+110) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Phillies are 57-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 40-47 ATS.
Phillies vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez 6-3, 2.35 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 4-4, 3.03 ERA
Phillies vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Phillies vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 37 games (+19.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+17.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.40 Units / 48% ROI)
- Cristian Pache has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Rafael Marchan has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 6 games (+12.00 Units / 200% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 39 games (+19.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 30 of his last 44 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games at home (+12.60 Units / 90% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 28 games (+12.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Michael Busch has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.40 Units / 95% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 71 games (+23.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 69 games (+22.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 45 of their last 68 games (+18.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 70 games (+16.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 44 of their last 69 games (+15.25 Units / 18% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games (+15.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+12.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 75 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.75 Units / 8% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 47-39 against the Run Line (+7.65 Units / 7.37% ROI).
- 57-29 when betting on the Moneyline for +13 Units / 9.03% ROI
- 38-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.65 Units / -10.15% ROI
- 43-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.1 Units / 1.17% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 40-47 against the Run Line (-17.65 Units / -14.49% ROI).
- 39-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -10.2% ROI
- 38-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.4 Units / -12.97% ROI
- 46-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 4.48% ROI
Cubs vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
Patrick Wisdom (CHC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Cubs vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Cody Bellinger (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Kody Clemens (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Cubs vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Kody Clemens (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jameson Taillon (CHC) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (166/273) against Cristopher Sanchez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has allowed an OBP of just .118 (51 PA’s) over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .309 — 100th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has allowed an OBP of just .056 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .316 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (157/248) against Cristopher Sanchez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has allowed an OPS of just .182 (23 PA’s) vs left-handed batters — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .728 — 97th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .091 (2-for-22) against Jameson Taillon — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .247 — 96th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 13 of 491 right-handed batters (3%) since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 23 of 899 right-handed batters (3%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.