Our home run props for Tuesday based on the odds from our best MLB betting sites land on two sluggers who are ideally positioned to capitalize on the opposing pitcher's most heavily used pitch.
The home run festivities on Monday included Vladimir Guerrero Jr. smacking one 471 feet that Fenway Park couldn't contain. It was the happiness before the darkness, though, for the Toronto Blue Jays, who blew a four-run lead to the Boston Red Sox.
But we care little about the actual result of baseball games around these parts. We're here for dingers – like the grand slam that Rhys Hoskins tattooed on Monday. He's well-positioned to keep swinging for the fences again and worth backing at quality value, as is a Los Angeles Dodger who isn't named Shohei Ohtani or Teoscar Hernandez.
Let's dive into our home run props for Tuesday.
Home run props for Tuesday
Home run odds via our best sports betting sites.
- Will Smith (+310 via FanDuel) vs. White Sox (Chris Flexen), at Guaranteed Rate Field
- Rhys Hoskins (+300 via Caesars) vs. Rangers (Andrew Heaney), at American Family Field
Please note that home run props are an extremely volatile betting market with little predictability. All wagers should be made with a reduced investment relative to the rest of our MLB picks.
| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 11 | HR/9: 1.4 |
| SLG%: .474 | HR/FB%: 9.2 |
| FB%: 39.9 | FB%: 26.3 |
| Hard hit %: 44.9 | Hard hit %: 35.1 |
Chris Flexen has historically been generous when handing out home runs. He was torn apart in 2023 while posting an expected opponents' slugging percentage of .509, which ranked among the bottom 4% of MLB, according to Baseball Savant. He's corrected some of those issues that led to soaring baseballs in 2024, but allowing six homers in his last seven games strongly hints that the regression monster is paying him a visit.
That is not a comfortable place to be against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are brimming with power, even with MLB MVP odds contender Mookie Betts injured. That includes Will Smith, who's been slumping but clubbed his 11th homer of the season recently.
But what's especially appealing about this batter-pitcher matchup is how heavily Flexen has been leaning on a pitch that Smith clobbers. The righty has been throwing his four-seamer 38.5% of the time, and Smith has posted a .420 slu gging percentage against that pitch in 2024. He's registered a .443 slugging percentage and .514 expected slugging against fastballs overall.
Be sure to make this wager at FanDuel, as some of our other best sportsbooks are offering a price that's notably shorter. That includes DraftKings, which is sitting at +260.
A $10 play at these odds would result in a $41 payout.
Best odds: +310 via FanDuel (24.39% implied probability)
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| Hitter stats | Pitcher stats |
|---|---|
| Home runs: 11 | HR/9: 1.4 |
| SLG%: .423 | HR/FB%: 8.9 |
| FB%: 32.6% | FB%: 32.3 |
| Hard hit %: 39.2% | Hard hit %: 42.7 |
This is again a case of pouncing on a pitcher who's been charitable lately with his home run handouts.
Andrew Heaney has often been giving in that regard while recording four career seasons with 20-plus dingers allowed. But he's been even more susceptible recently while coughing up a long ball in six of his last eight starts. A pedestrian hard-hit rate that sits only among the 25th percentile of MLB is primarily to blame. And like Flexen (but even more so), Heaney strongly relies on a mediocre pitch.
His fastball velocity sits in the 13th percentile, and that heavily contriutes to an average exit speed of 90.9 mph that's in the bottom 7% leaguewide. Yet he throws his four-seamer a staggering 53.7% of the time.
Meanwhile, veteran first baseman Rhys Hoskins is slugging .566 against four-seamers. He's on a six-game hitting streak while attempting to return to his May producti on (.828 OPS), and that run includes a homer on Monday.
A $10 wager at these +300 odds from Caesars translates to a $40 payout.
Best odds: +300 via Caesars (25.0% implied probability)
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