The Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-115) on Monday, June 24, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.

This season, the Pirates are 37-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 43-34 ATS.

Pirates vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:

• Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 3-5, 3.76 ERA
• Reds starting pitcher: Carson Spiers 0-1, 3.20 ERA

Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:

• Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 16 away games (+14.00 Units / 88% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+13.20 Units / 46% ROI)
• Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 away games (+11.75 Units / 46% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.05 Units / 40% ROI)
• Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 19 away games (+8.80 Units / 45% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 44 games (+19.05 Units / 38% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 26 games (+18.60 Units / 72% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 39 games (+13.60 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jake Fraley has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.55 Units / 38% ROI)
• Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.00 Units / 71% ROI)

Pirates Best Bets Today:

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 66 games (+20.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.85 Units / 54% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 33 games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games (+5.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.40 Units / 11% ROI)

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 61 games (+15.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 25 games at home (+14.55 Units / 49% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 37 games at home (+10.80 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 59 games (+9.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.15 Units / 19% ROI)

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 40-37 against the Run Line (+0.31 Units / 0.31% ROI).

• 37-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.65 Units / -6.22% ROI
• 35-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.5 Units / -7.61% ROI
• 38-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.28 Units / 0.33% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 43-34 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 5.49% ROI).

• 36-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -6.19% ROI
• 32-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.7 Units / -17.32% ROI
• 42-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.45 Units / 7.61% ROI

Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (107/538) against Bailey Falter this season — 7th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 19% (80/431) against Bailey Falter this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.

Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 14% (18 SO in 126 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Bailey Falter has thrown fastballs 68% of the time (591/865) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 97th Percentile.

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .293 (17-for-58) against Carson Spiers with two-strikes this season — highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .159 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (10/38) against Carson Spiers in two-strike counts this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.

Carson Spiers has allowed three-ball counts to 7% of batters they faced (7/106 PA’s) this season — lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.

Carson Spiers has allowed a slugging percentage of .431 (25 Total Bases / 58 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 3rd highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: .239 — third Percentile.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

  
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