The Boston Red Sox (-125) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+105) on Saturday, June 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.

This season, the Red Sox are 40-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 42-33 ATS.

Red Sox vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:

• Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 4-4, 3.88 ERA
• Reds starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 3-5, 4.65 ERA

Red Sox vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Red Sox vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:

• Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+14.85 Units / 39% ROI)
• David Hamilton has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games (+12.60 Units / 158% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+11.15 Units / 43% ROI)
• Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 14 away games (+9.00 Units / 56% ROI)
• David Hamilton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.00 Units / 45% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 42 games (+21.05 Units / 43% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 24 games (+20.60 Units / 86% ROI)
• Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 37 games (+15.60 Units / 34% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+11.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+11.00 Units / 46% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 33 games (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 35 away games (+7.50 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games (+6.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 away games (+6.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 76 games (+6.15 Units / 6% ROI)

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 59 games (+16.00 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 23 games at home (+12.50 Units / 46% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+11.15 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+9.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games (+8.35 Units / 29% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 36-40 against the Run Line (-10.2 Units / -9.89% ROI).

• 40-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.95 Units / 1.04% ROI
• 34-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -8.62% ROI
• 38-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 1.13% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 42-33 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 5.62% ROI).

• 36-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -3.33% ROI
• 31-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.65 Units / -17.69% ROI
• 41-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.65 Units / 8.07% ROI

Reds vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Reds vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .770 (211 Total Bases / 274 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .574 — 0 Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has allowed an OBP of just .179 (485 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .129 (15-for-116) against Nick Pivetta in late innings since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .126 (57-for-454) against Nick Pivetta with two-strikes since last season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 94 total IP; League Avg: .172 — 95th Percentile.

Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Frankie Montas has walked 15 of 111 batters (14%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.

Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of .704 (19 Total Bases / 27 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: .391 — third Percentile.

Frankie Montas has walked 7 of 27 left-handed batters (26%) this month (3 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.

Frankie Montas has a strikeout rate of just 15% (17 SO in 111 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

  
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