It’s been an unusual season already in the NFL, and we’re only through Week 2.
— Several teams that looked horrible in Week 1 bounced back in Week 2 and vice versa.
— Only six undefeated teams remain, with three of them being among the Super Bowl favorites (Bills, Chiefs, Buccaneers).
— Seven teams are winless, highlighted by four AFC teams that were expected to be playoff contenders (Bengals, Titans, Colts, Raiders).
Typically after two weeks of NFL games, bettors are already forming distinctive opinions about most teams and, in turn, oddsmakers try to take advantage. I’m going to try to help you avoid some “traps” the books are going to set this week.
You’ve probably read sob stories about the Monday night bloodbath the books took with the favored Bills and Eagles winning handily, or how they’ve taken a hit on other games this season. Regardless of what has happened in the first two weeks, Week 3 has had a history of evening the scales. Tread cautiously this weekend, and perhaps have the courage to go against the grain. Bettors who have done so have normally reaped the rewards.
In this report, I’ll look at some Week 3 handicapping systems that have thrived in recent years, using logic that might not seem all that sensible. Backing these types of angles helps bettors avoid what I feel are traps. Odds are from DraftKings as of Wednesday afternoon.
1. Teams that start 0-2 SU are 20-23 SU but 30-13 ATS (69.8%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010.
There’s a tidal wave of negativity associated with winless teams after two weeks, and while these 0-2 teams have performed poorly against 2-0 teams, they have done quite well against 1-1 opponents. In most cases, 1-1 teams have shown early signs of inconsistency. Trust that the desperate 0-2 teams will bring their best effort, motivated by the fear of going 0-3 and what that has historically meant to a team’s playoff chances.
The 0-2 teams (in caps) against 1-1 teams in Week 3:
— CINCINNATI (-5) at N.Y. Jets
— CAROLINA (+ 3) vs. New Orleans
— ATLANTA (+ 2) at Seattle