The Phillies and Mets meet for the 2024 MLB World Tour: London Series, and we're diving into the matchup with our Phillies vs. Mets player props based on the best MLB odds.
When MLB travels to London, it typically brings several boatloads of runs along for the journey. And plenty of balls could clear the shorter fences again beginning on Saturday at 1:10 p.m. ET, the first of two contests at London Stadium between the Philadelphia Phillies (44-19) and New York Mets (27-35).
Four games have been played in London, and the first two featured comically high run totals – especially the opening matchup. That was a 17-13 win for the New York Yankees over the Boston Red Sox, with those teams combining to score 50 runs over a pair of games in 2019.
Alterations to the stadium's setup for baseball reduced the dimensions to eyebrow-raising as opposed to the previous fences tha t a well-skipped rock could clear. Still, 330 feet down the lines and 392 to straightaway center could lead to launchpad status again, especially with the Phillies and their second-ranked offense involved.
Here are our best Phillies vs. Mets player props and MLB picks.
Phillies vs. Mets player props
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best MLB betting sites.
- Ranger Suarez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-120 via bet365) ????
- Nick Castellanos Over 1.5 total bases (+100 via bet365) ?????
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Phillies vs. Mets expert picks
There are oh-so-many problems with the Mets. But the issues are mostly tied to pitching, and more specifically a group of starting pitchers who collectively have amassed a 4.41 ERA (22nd).
Their offense is mediocre, too, but not due to frequent whiffing. The Mets have struck out the ninth-fewest times, and despite his overall brilliance in 2024 and status as a contender by the Cy Young odds, Suarez struck out merely three New York batters when he last faced the team on May 15.
Suarez strikes out a decent amount of hitters with a 9.6 K/9. However, he succeeds primarily through inducing weak contact. That shines through with his 55.3 groundbal l rate, which ranks in the 92nd percentile according to Baseball Savant, and his minuscule average exit velocity allowed of 85.3 MPH.
The Phillies ace can keep the Mets' bats quiet with that approach, and do it while leaning heavily on a sinker that he throws 32.1% of the time. Suarez can keep thriving on Saturday, just likely not via the strikeout.
A $10 wager at these -120 odds through bet365 would result in an $18.33 payout at an implied probability of 54.55%, per our odds converter.
Elsewhere, FanDuel is also offering a special series prop, in which you can wager on which team will win the series. It's a little more unique in this case because a two-game miniseries isn't as common, making a tie an option, which FanDuel is offering at +104.
However, taking the Phillies at +138 is the better play, even if the Mets' +520 odds are appealing. Philadelphia will trot out Suarez to open the series, and he'll bring his league-leading 1.70 ERA against a middling Mets offense. A nd overall, Philadelphia should tee off on a 20th-ranked Mets pitching staff.
Best odds: -120 via bet365
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Castellanos has been struggling mightily to make consistent contact in 2024. That's surfaced in his batting average, which has plunged from .272 in 2023 to .214 now.
But while the 32-year-old is getting further removed from the height of his career when he clubbed 34 homers while hitting .309 with the Cincinnati Reds, some positive regression could be coming, at least in the short term. Or perhaps it's already beginning.
Castellanos is sporting a .353 slugging percentage, and that's far lower than his expected slugging of .406. We're already seeing a rebound toward the latter number, as the veteran has registered at least one hit in seven of his last eight games. Even better, that stretch includes six extra-base hits, two home runs, and a three-hit outing against the San Francisco Giants.
Now he gets to face a soft-throwing southpaw in Sean Manaea whose fastball velocity ranks in the 24th percentile. And although Castellanos has been limping along overall in 2024, his .745 OPS against lefties is far better than the .581 he's been producing against righties.
A $10 wager on Castellanos to finish with two-plus total bases would result in a $20 payout at these odds, with an implied probability of 50%.
Best odds: +100 via bet365
Phillies vs. Mets odds for Saturday
Phillies vs. Mets game info (London Series)
- When: Saturday, June 8
- First pitch: 1:10 p.m. ET
- Where: London Stadium (London)
- How to watch: FOX
- Favorite: Phillies (-160 via bet365)
Phillies vs. Mets player props made Friday at 5:09 p.m. ET.
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