Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes takes on the big, bad Los Angeles Dodgers, and we're looking at that game and more for our top MLB player props and expert picks for Wednesday based on the best MLB odds.
It's a full MLB slate on Wednesday, highlighted by the showdown between MLB Rookie of the Year odds contender Paul Skenes and the World Series odds-favorite Los Angeles Dodgers. First pitch for the highly anticipated affair is 6:40 p.m. ET, but there's plenty of great action before and after that, too.
Games begin at 1:35 p.m. ET on Wednesday, with the Boston Red Sox hosting the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park.
Shortly after that, the St. Louis Cardinals visit the Houston Astros at 2:10 p.m. ET, and that's the site of our first MLB player prop on Wednesday.
The day concludes with an NL West matchup between the visiting Seattle Mari ners and the Oakland Athletics, with MLB Cy Young odds contender Logan Gilbert on the hill for the M's.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Wednesday (MLB picks based on odds via our
best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Wednesday's MLB expert picks
- Ronel Blanco Under 5.5 strikeouts (+120 via BetRivers) ????
- Dakota Hudson Under 3.5 strikeouts (-130 via BetMGM) ????
- Paul Skenes Under 6.5 strikeouts (+110 via BetMGM) ???
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MLB player props
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 5.5 (+100) | Under 5.5 (+108) | Under 5.5 (+105) | Under 5.5 (-101) | Under 5.5 (+105) |
Game info: Cardinals vs. Astros | Moneyline: Astros (-175 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-115)/Under 8.5 (-105) via Betway | Start time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Houston Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco is still a bit of a mystery through 10 starts this season. He no-hit the Toronto Blue Jays to open the campaign, was caught cheating in the middle of May, and owns a very nice 2.44 ERA despite some ugly peripherals. One thing we do know for sure, though, is that he doesn't strike out a ton of batters.
Doing so on Wednesday will prove relatively difficult against a St. Louis Cardinals team that ranks right in the middle of the pack in strikeout rate. Additionally, much of the Cardinals' struggles at the plate came early in the season, as Nolan Gorman, Masyn Winn, Paul Goldschmidt, and Alec Burleson have been much better during the last month or so.
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On Wednesday, Blanco is projected for 5.4 punchouts against the Cardinals. That's just better than half a strikeout less than what he'd need to clear this total, but we're still getting 20% positive expected value thanks to these +120 odds.
Comparatively, most of our other best sports betting sites are hovering around even money, while Pinnacle – which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry – offers the Under at -125.
Best odds: +120 via BetRivers
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 3.5 (-145) | Under 3.5 (-138) | Under 3.5 (-130) | Under 3.5 (-147) | Under 3.5 (-150) |
Game info: Reds vs. Rockies | Moneyline: Reds (-130 via Betway) | Total: Over 11.5 (-110)/Under 11.5 (-110) via Betway | Start time: 3:10 p.m. ET
Here's the only thing you need to know about Dakota Hudson this season: he's managing nearly as many walks per nine innings (4.55) as strikeouts (4.87). He's cleared this strikeout total only three times in his 11 starts this season, and the last time he did so was during an April 25 start in which the San Diego Padres knocked him around for six runs over only 3 1/3 innings.
Hudson squares off with a Cincinnati Reds team that's striking out at the sixth-highest rate in the league, but it also walks at the seventh-highest rate – not a great matchup for the right-hander. Additionally, this game is at Coors Field, and the total is set at 11.5 runs, so this could be an abbreviated outing for Hudson.
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Our trusted projection models support that, too, as Hudson is expected to “rack up” only 2.87 strikeouts on Wednesday. Based on that projection, we're getting just better than 19% +EV on this bet.
A number of our best sports betting apps are already hovering around -145 or -150, making these -130 odds at BetMGM very enticing. Additionally, Pinnacle offers its Under at -187.
Best odds: -130 via BetMGM
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 6.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-160) | Under 6.5 (+110) | Under 6.5 (-119) | Under 7.5 (-170) |
Game info: Dodgers vs. Pirates | Moneyline: Pirates (-120 via Betway) | Total: Over 8.5 (-105)/Under 8.5 (-115) via Betway | Start time: 6:40 p.m. ET
I know, fading Pittsburgh Pirates starter Paul Skenes is some real sicko behavior, even if he is against the Los Angeles Dodgers and their duo of MLB MVP odds favorites. Skenes has averaged 12.27 Ks per nine over his first four starts following nine punchouts in his last outing against the Detroit Tigers.
However, the Dodgers are the Dodgers, and they own the 13th-best strikeout rate to go along with the second-best walk rate and wRC+. Basically, there is no NL team scarier than the Dodgers.
Based on Skenes' projections, we're getting roughly 28% +EV on this bet. However, this is only a three-star pick for multiple reasons. First, his projections aren't quite as aligned as I like across our four trusted models. Secondly, I simply don't like betting on rookie pitchers whom the projection models haven't properly adjusted to.
This is still a solid bet, though, as is FanDuel's Under 7.5 at -160. This is the higher EV play, but that's the safer bet for those as timid about betting on the Pirates phenom as I am.
Best odds: +110 via BetMGM
MLB player props made Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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