The Boston Celtics are hoping to win their first NBA Finals in over a decade against the Dallas Mavericks, and we're offering our top Jayson Tatum player props based on the best NBA odds for Game 1 on Thursday.
All season, the Boston Celtics have sat atop the NBA championship odds, and now they have the chance to bring Beantown its first Larry O'Brien Trophy since 2008. But they'll have to take down the Dallas Mavericks, starting with Game 1 on Thursday at TD Garden, tipping off at 8:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
As we broke down in our NBA Finals odds & betting preview, this is the best team in the NBA against arguably the best player in the NBA, Luka Doncic. For the Celtics to win it all, they'll need their best player, Jayson Tatum, to live up to being the NBA Finals MVP odds favorite.
Along with our Mavericks vs. Celtics player props, here are our best Jayson Tatum player props predictions for Thursday's Mavericks vs. Celtics matchup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Jayson Tatum odds, player props
- Jayson Tatum Over 15.5 rebounds + assists (-105 via DraftKings) ????
- Jayson Tatum Over 26.5 points (-115 via bet365) ????
- Jayson Tatum Under 2.5 made 3-pointers (+106 via FanDuel) ???
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The debate leading up to Game 1 of the NBA Finals has been focused on where Tatum ranks among the best players in the NBA. Is he fourth? Is he ninth? Who cares, because the Celtics are four wins away from being the best team in the league, thanks in large part to him.
Tatum's been a force in the paint. He's utilized his size and strength to own the glass while averaging 10.4 per game in the playoffs and has reached double digits in 11 of 14 games. He's also showcased his playmaking ability, taking advantage of all the talent around him.
Tatum's averaging 5.9 assists per game and has had at least five in 11 games. He's topped 15.5 combined in 10 games, including six of his last seven. These odds imply a 51.22% win probability, according to our odds converter, with a $10 bet paying out $19.52.
Best odds: -105 via DraftKings
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Some of this Tatum discourse has some viewers questioning whether certain “analysts” are even watching the games. Did they see his quieter games in the first round against the Miami Heat and decide he's incapable of scoring in the playoffs?
Though Tatum doesn't need to put up gaudy scoring numbers for Boston to win, he's steadily improved with each series. He put up 30.3 per game in the ECF and scored at least 27 in four of his last seven games. Against the Mavericks, especially in Game 1 with a fresh Doncic, Boston will likely rely more heavily on Tatum, specifically inside the arc.
The Mavericks allowed the 10th-most 2-pointers per game this season (29.8) and gave up the ninth-most points to power forwards (24.58). The odds imply a 53.49% win probability with a $10 bet paying an $8.70 profit.
Best odds: -115 via bet365
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For as much praise as I will comfortably heap on Tatum for his play in leading Boston to a 12-2 postseason record, he's been shooting threes how I imagine Donnie Wahlberg would if Boston asked him to fill in.
Tatum's been doing most of his damage around the rim, and he's shot worse than 31% from three in each series this postseason – he's shooting just 29% from behind the arc for the playoffs. The Celtics haven't needed him from deep, either, with Derrick White leading the team in threes per game (3.4).
The return of Kristaps Porzingis should only lighten Tatum's load from three, too. With Tatum averaging 2.1 made threes per game and hitting Under 2.5 in 11 of 14 games, I love the value in these odds. Despite implying only a 48.54% win probability, they pay $20.60 on a $10 wager.
Best odds: +106 via FanDuel
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Jayson Tatum player props picks made Tuesday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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