The Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers meet in the Stanley Cup Final for the first time as we look at the matchup, dissect the analytics, and dive into Cup final betting odds from our best NHL betting sites for our complete Stanley Cup Final betting preview.
The Edmonton Oilers are an altogether different proposition than years past. While Connor McDavid is the drill bit that hits paydirt, the supporting cast is much better than previous seasons at aiding in its extraction.
Still boasting the playoffs' most dangerous attacking players, the Oilers advanced to their first Stanley Cup Final since 2006 thanks to an elite penalty kill that hasn't allowed a goal in 28 attempts, Stuart Skinner's undervalued yet clutch goaltending, and a newfound ability to win ugly.
The Oilers were among the Stanley Cup odds' favorites for most of the season, excluding th eir dreadful start to the campaign. McDavid leads all postseason scorers with 31 points in 18 games and enters the final as the Conn Smythe Trophy odds favorite.
And then there's one of the best playoff teams I've had the privilege of witnessing. You'll be hard-pressed to find a chink in the Florida Panthers' armor. The Panthers dominated the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and New York Rangers en route to their second straight Stanley Cup Final berth.
They are the marginal favorites to win their first Stanley Cup in franchise history. Here are my Stanley Cup Final odds and betting preview (odds via our best sports betting sites).
2024 Stanley Cup Final schedule
All games start at 8 p.m. ET
| Game | Location | Date | How to watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Amerant Bank Arena (Sunrise, Fla.) | Saturday, June 8 | ABC, ESPN+, Sportsnet, CBC |
| 2 | Amerant Bank Arena (Sunrise, Fla.) | Monday, June 10 | ABC, ESPN+, Sportsnet, CBC |
| 3 | Rogers Place (Edmonton, Alberta) | Tuesday, June 13 | ABC, ESPN+, Sportsnet, CBC |
| 4 | Rogers Place (Edmonton, Alberta) | Saturday, June 15 | ABC, ESPN+, Sportsnet, CBC |
| 5 | Amerant Bank Arena (Sunrise, Fla.) | *Tuesday, June 18 | ABC, ESPN+, Sportsnet, CBC |
| 6 | Rogers Place (Edmonton, Alberta) | *Friday, June 21 | ABC, ESPN+, Sportsnet, CBC |
| 7 | Amerant Bank Arena (Sunrise, Fla.) | *Monday, June 24 | ABC, ESPN+, Sportsnet, CBC |
* – If necessary
Oilers vs. Panthers stats breakdown
| Stat | Oilers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 49-27-6 | 52-24-6 |
| Head-to-head | 0-2 | 2-0 |
| Home points % | .732 (tied 2nd) | .659 (tied 10th) |
| Away points % | .537 (tied 11th) | .683 (2nd) |
| Goals for per game | 3.56 (4th) | 3.23 (11th) |
| Goals against per game | 2.88 (10th) | 2.41 (tied 1st) |
| Win % leading after one period | .609 (4th) | .594 (7th) |
| Corsi % | 55.17% (3rd) | 55.68% (2nd) |
| PDO | 100.28 (15th) | 100.62 (8th) |
| Power play | 26.3% (4th) | 23.5% (8th) |
| Penalty kill | 79.5% (15t h) | 82.5% (tied 6th) |
| Goaltending advantage | ? |
| Stat | Oilers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 12-6 | 12-5 |
| Home record | 6-3 | 6-3 |
| Away record | 6-3 | 6-2 |
| Goals for per game | 3.50 | 3.24 |
| Goals against per game | 2.61 | 2.29 |
| Record when leading after one period | 5-3 | 5-0 |
| Record when scoring first | 10-4 | 7-2 |
| Record when conceding first | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Record in one-goal games | 7-4 | 7-3 |
| Corsi % | 49.91% | 55.42% |
| PDO | 99.56 | 99.70 |
| Power play | 37.3% | 23.3% |
| Penalty kill | 93.9% | 88.2% |
| Goaltending advantage | ? |
Neither team is statistically superior to the other. However, there were some trends from previous rounds to note.
The Oilers' penalty kill has not only been the pleasant surprise of their postseason but has arguably been the most critical aspect of their run to the final. Their two units have killed 28 straight penalties and haven't allowed a power-play goal since Game 3 of the second round against the Vancouver Canucks, a 10-game streak.
Edmonton also had a 100% kill rate against the Los Angeles Kings in the opening round. The Canucks scored three power-play goals in Games 2 and 3, the only goals Edmonton has conceded on the penalty kill in 18 playoff contests.
The Panthers' penalty kill is also sublime, ranking second behind the Oilers at 88.2%. Their two units killed 14 of 15 New York Rangers power plays and 16 of 17 against the Boston Bruins in the second round.&nbs p;
After failing to score on their first six attempts in Games 1 through 4 of the Western Conference Final, the Oilers' power play sprung into action at the most opportune moments. The power play went 4-for-5 in Games 5 and 6, scoring four of the final five goals, including both in the series-clinching Game 6. At 37.3%, the Oilers power play is the most lethal in the postseason.
Statistically, the Panthers are the better even-strength team, scoring 39 goals and allowing 30 compared to the Oilers' 43 goals for and 44 against.
There is another dichotomy worth noting and keeping your eyes peeled for. The Oilers are the much better team in the opening 20 minutes, while the Panthers save their prowling best for the third. Edmonton has outscored its opponents 23-13 in the opening frame, while Florida has allowed 13 and scored just 10 in the first 20.
However, the Panthers have 24 goals for and 11 against in the third period, while the Oilers have been outscored 19-12 in the final 20 minutes.
Oilers vs. Panthers odds
| Market | Oilers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Series winner | +110 via bet365 | -130 via DraftKings |
| Spread | Oilers +1.5 games (-190 via DraftKings) | Panthers -1.5 games (+160 via BetMGM) |
| Total games | 6 games (+200 via DraftKings) | 7 games (+200 via DraftKings) |
| Game 1 winner | +115 via BetMGM | -135 via DraftKings |
| Game 1 spread | +1.5 (-196 via FanDuel) | -1.5 (+185 via DraftKings) |
| Game 1 total | Over 5.5 (-115 via FanDuel) | Under 5.5 (-105 via FanDuel) |
| Conn Smythe favorite | Connor McDavid (+230 via FanDue l) | Aleksander Barkov, Sergei Bobrovsky (+450 via DraftKings) |
The Panthers are the consensus favorites across our best sports betting apps. Their bitter Florida rivals, the Tampa Bay Lighting, made three straight finals from 2020-22, winning twice. Florida lost in last season's Stanley Cup Final in five games to the Vegas Golden Knights.
Like most things in life, the Panthers probably learned more about how to win from losing the 2022-23 Stanley Cup Final. However, they're facing a team featuring arguably the best hockey player ever, with a nation behind them. The Oilers look to become the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since the 1992-93 Montreal Canadiens.
The last Stanley Cup Final that went the distance was in 2019 when the Boston Bruins lost to the St. Louis Blues in seven games. Only one of the previous 12 Cup finals was decided in seven games. Not only are we overdue for another seven-game thriller, but I feel the Oilers and Panthers a re so evenly matched that the series will go the distance. DraftKings' +200 odds imply a probability of 33.33%, and a $10 bet pays a profit of $20 if the series goes to a seventh and deciding game.
You can also combine the Oilers' +1.5-game spread (-196) and the Over 5.5 games (-188) at FanDuel to elicit more value from the otherwise short odds. According to our parlay calculator, that mini-parlay offers +131 odds and pays a profit of $13.13 on a winning $10 wager. Read the Stanley Cup prediction section below to see why I'm backing the Oilers.
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I won't be the first nor the last to back McDavid as the Conn Smythe winner. If, like me, you're feeling the Oilers' immaculate vibes, back McDavid at FanDuel while you still have the chance of securing their +230 odds, the best value of our best sports betting sites. Those odds will probably shorten to align with the others in the lead-up to Game 1.
If you think the Oilers will lose Game 1 but win the Stanley Cup, you should wait, as McDavid's odds will lengthen marginally in the aforementioned scenario.
Oilers vs. Panthers series player props
| Series leader | Oilers | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | Zach Hyman (+360 via DraftKings) | Carter Verhaeghe (+550 via DraftKings) |
| Points | Connor McDavid (+140 via DraftKings) | Matthew Tkachuk (+900 via DraftKings) |
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Oilers winger Zach Hyman has 14 goals to lead all skaters. He is four ahead of Dallas Stars' forward Wyatt Johnston and teammate Leon Draisaitl. According to DraftKings' +360 odds, Hyman has a 21.74% chance of being the top goalscorer in the final. I'll take those odds every day of the week.
Hyman plays with McDavid on the first power-play unit and even strength. Enough said. Even if the Oilers fall at the final hurdle, Hyman's 0.5 goals-per-game rate in the playoffs thus far is too prolific for me to consider another player.
A $10 wager pays a profit of $36 if it hits.
And then there's McDavid, who is impossible to stop when he's at his best. McDavid willed the Oilers to victory over the Stars, awakening after being held off the scoresheet in Game 2. He had eight points in the final four games of the Western Conference Final, including his outrageous opener on the power play in Game 6.
While Matthew Tkachuk, Draisaitl and others are renowned for elevating their levels in the postseason, nobody can drag a team to victory like McDavid. I expect more of the same from the irrepressible captain.
The +140 odds offered by DraftKings will pay a profit of $14 on a winning $10 bet and imply a 41.67% probability.
Stanley Cup Final prediction
I learned a few things about the Oilers in the Western Conference Final. The first was to never doubt a McDavid-led squad again. I felt my doubt was warranted, as the Stars were the deeper and more complete team, or so I thought.
This Oilers team has matured immeasurably in the last few seasons. Losing to the Colorado Avalanche and the Vegas Golden Knights in successive playoffs was the best thing that could have happened. There isn't enough difference between those defea ts and the Panthers' setback in last season's final to give either team the advantage.
Not only have the Oilers matured like an 18-year-old whisky, but they have shown a newfound ability to win in the ugliest of fashions. Their 10-shot output in Game 6 against the Stars was the fewest of any series-clinching win. They won that contest thanks to a ruthless and opportunistic power play, a sensational smothering penalty kill, and Skinner's heroics. The Oilers netminder proved his ability to steal a playoff game, which had yet to happen beforehand.
And not to sound like an annoying tambourine that plays the same note incessantly, but the Oilers are led by two of the world's best players, one of whom could drag the San Jose Sharks to victory in a pinch. Yes, he will have to deal with Alexsander Barkov, one of the best shutdown centers in the game. But McDavid will relish the challenge.
The Panthers are an outstanding team that won both games against Edmonton in the regular season. They have Sergei Bobrovsky, a 2023-24 Vezina Trophy finalist, between the pipes and have no discernible Achilles heel. But that's precisely what I said about the Dallas Stars.
McDavid is destined to win a Stanley Cup, and he might not have a better chance to do so in his prime. It's also high time a Canadian team wins a Stanley Cup. Thirty-one years is a severe drought, and what better team to return the Cup to Canada than one led by a generational talent who won't take no for an answer?
Best bet: Oilers to win series 4-3 (+450 via DraftKings)
How to bet on the Stanley Cup Final
The best advice anyone can give is to do your homework. Make sure you look at what markets are available and shop around at our best sports betting sites before committing. Also, being timely will help you jump on the odds with the most value. Look at lines as they're released and do as many comparisons as possible.
Dive into how each team performs home and away, seeing whether trends persist no matter the venue or if a team tends to do some things better at home than on the road, or vice versa.
For example, the Panthers shoot a lot no matter where they play but fire more pucks on goal at home. McDavid is more prolific at home across the board, including shots on goal, points, and assists. Eight of Hyman's 14 goals occurred on home ice, while 18 of defenseman Evan Bouchard's 27 points also came at Rogers Place.
That increased point production often comes down to having the last change, facilitating a matchup advantage. Knoblauch will try to keep McDavid away from Barkov when the Oilers play at home, while the opposite will be true in Sunrise, Fla.
Most importantly, watch each game closely. Stats and analytics should only be part of your strategy. To get the most out of your bets, watch the action closely, as you'll gain more comprehensive insight into how players perform in certain situations and against various opponents.
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