June is finally here, and we are looking to start the month off right with a couple intriguing plus-money player prop bets. Today’s article focuses in on two established MLB veteran southpaws, as we are looking to back Framber Valdez and Chris Sale this afternoon. Let’s dive in!
Framber Valdez (HOU) over 17.5 outs recorded (+104)
It has been a bit of a rocky start to the 2024 season for both the Houston Astros and their ace Framber Valdez. Framber has been one of the steadier arms in the sport across the past few seasons, and his proven track record of success earns the benefit of the doubt in my eyes. His season began with 6 walks against the Yankees, but he then followed that up with 7.2 shutout innings against Toronto. An IL stint halted his momentum as he missed nearly 4 weeks of action before returning for 5 innings across 71 pitches against the Rockies. His 4th start of the year was a poor one against Seattle, lasting only 5.1 innings against a team he has struggled with historically. Among his last 4 starts, however, 3 have been very strong including 7 inning outings against both Detroit and Oakland, and 6 innings against that same Mariners lineup in his last start.
Framber struggled in the first inning of his last start, allowing 4 hits and 3 earned runs, but he bounced back nicely with 5 shutout innings allowing just 2 hits to close that outing. Houston left him in the game to face 27 batters across 96 pitches despite his shaky start, and it is clear that he is now fully stretched out. When successful, Valdez generates a ton of ground balls with his sinker-heavy approach. His current GB% of 68.3% is 100th percentile in MLB and even higher than his 2022 mark of 67.4%. He draws a matchup today against a Twins lineup that is competent but can certainly be attacked in this market. Daniel Lynch and Cole Ragans just fell short of this mark with 5 innings of work each, but each of the previous 5 southpaws to face the Twins reached at least 18 outs recorded. This includes shaky arms like Patrick Corbin, Mitchell Parker, Logan Allen, and even 8 full innings from Yusei Kikuchi.