The culmination of the 2023-24 season takes place at Wembley Stadium in London on Saturday when Borussia Dortmund and Real Madrid meet in the Champions League final, and we're offering the best prop pick and prediction based on the Champions League odds.
Real Madrid have won 14 of their 17 Champions League final appearances entering the June 1 grandstand final against Borussia Dortmund, who advanced to the final for the third time and have taken Europe's most coveted club competition once in 1997. Los Blancos, the consensus favorites, have won the final in eight successive appearances.
Dortmund last qualified for the showcase event in 2012-13 when they lost 2-1 to Bayern Munich, also played at Wembley. Real Madrid enter Saturday's proceedings on a 25-match unbeaten streak across all competitions, and they've scored at least once in every away encounter.
Here is our best Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid prediction and soccer pick for Saturday's Champions League final (odds via our best soccer betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid prediction
While I enjoy a fairytale as much as anyone and am addicted to morale-boosting, inspirational sports flicks on Disney+, I can't see Borussia Dortmund winning their first Champions League title in almost 30 years.
However, I expect an incredibly tight, even cagey affair. The last four Champions League finals ended 1-0, highlighting an increased likelihood of one clinical moment proving decisive. This prop allows for three or fewer goals, which has occurred in six of the previous eight finals.
The 3.5-goal threshold provides a buffer, as there's a decent chance this contest goes to extra time deadlocked at 1-1. In that scenario, a winning goal-whether in extra time or via a dreaded shootout- would push the total to three goals. Four of the last six Dortmund and Madrid Champions League matches featured three goals or fewer.
Regarding the result, the Galacticos boast too many superstar players who can decide the match with one swift and magical swing of the boot. Not only does Los Blancos carry the ability to win a match of this importance in a flash, but they're also better than Harry Houdini at escaping near-certain death. Madrid scored two last-gasp goals to pull off impressive escapes in two of their last three semifinals.
Best odds: +120 via DraftKings
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Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid odds
Champions League final odds via DraftKings as of Thursday at 1 p.m. ET.
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | -160 | -0.5 (-175) | Over 2.5 (-140) |
| Borussia Dortmund | +450 | +0.5 (+130) | Under (+115) |
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid odds analysis
Backing Real Madrid on the moneyline won't lead to much value. BetMGM offers the best price of our best sports betting apps at -159. Overall, the club's moneyline odds are trading between -159 and -170.
Adding the Under on 3.5 goals substantially increases the value without increasing the risk too much. At +120, DraftKings' odds imply a probability of 45.45%, while a $10 bet will pay a profit of $12 if it hits.
Champions League final game info
- Date: June 1, 2024, 3 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS, Paramount+
- Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England
- Weather: 72 degrees and cloudy with a chance of rain
- Favorite: Real Madrid (-159 BetMGM)
Recent Champions League winners
| Team | Year | Odds prior to Round of 16 |
|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2023 | +185 |
| Real Madrid | 2022 | +1600 |
| Chelsea | 2021 | +1800 |
| Bayern Munich | 2020 | +650 |
| Liverpool | 2019 | +900 |
| Real Madrid | 2018 | +850 |
| Real Madrid | 2017 | +490 |
| Real Madrid | 2016 | +550 |
| FC Barcelona | 2015 | +550 |
Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid prediction made Thursday at 1 p.m. ET.
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