The Edmonton Oilers flipped the script on the Dallas Stars in Game 4, overturning a two-goal deficit to tie the series at two as the Western Conference Final shifts back to Dallas, and, like Connor McDavid on a loose puck, we're all over it, offering Friday's Game 5 predictions based on the best NHL odds.
The Edmonton Oilers showed more character and resilience in their 5-2 Game 4 victory than Edmontonians persevering through winters far more treacherous than those the white walkers in Game of Thrones were subjected to. They scored five straight goals to force a best-of-three, which kicks off with Game 5 at the American Airlines Center in Dallas. The puck will drop at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT).
The Dallas Stars couldn't maintain their explosive start, coughing up the lead like the Oilers in the previous encounter. The Game 4 loss was only Dallas' second road defea t of the postseason. Despite the setback, the Stars are the consensus favorites to win Game 5 and have the second shortest Stanley Cup odds.
Here are our best Oilers vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Oilers vs. Stars Game 5 expert picks
- Under 6.5 goals (-150 via Betway) ???
- Under 55.5 total shots (-116 via Betway) ????
- Connor McDavid Over 3.5 shots (+100 via Betway) ????
- Jamie Benn Over 0.5 points (-118 via Betway) ????
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Oilers vs. Stars predictions for Friday
Games 3 and 4 in Edmonton hit the Over, while Games 1 and 2 in Dallas had fi ve and four goals, respectively. The Stars' three home games against the Colorado Avalanche in the previous round hit the Over, with all three on the road seeing six goals or fewer. While there's no apparent rhyme or reason to whether Stars' games go Over or Under, three of the four Game 5s in the previous round had five goals or fewer.
It's the most crucial game of the series, a statement more obvious than players' responses in post-game interviews. The winner of Game 5 in deadlocked series advances about 75% of the time, elevating the importance of the swing contest. Even if Chris Tanev cannot play due to his injury in Game 4, both teams will be steely and focused on minute details and overall defensive play, which should facilitate a lower-scoring contest. This prop bet is reduced to a 3-star wager due to the longer odds and decreased potential profit. The -150 odds imply a probability of 60%, and a $10 wager will pay a profit of $6.67.
Best odds: -150 via Betway
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This particular prop grabs my attention more than a beachfront happy hour. In the Western Conference Final, the Stars are averaging 25.5 shots per game and the Oilers 31.5. Those top-line stats are slightly misleading. Only Game 1, which went to double-overtime, had Over 55.5 shots. I don't see there being a ton of space to let loose in Game 5, nor will there be many power-play opportunities if the rest of the series is anything to go by. The Oilers have had six power-play attempts, and the Stars have been on the man advantage nine times.
Facing an average of 12.7 shots in the opening period of the last three games, most of Jake Oettinger's work has come in the first 20 minutes, but I expect a much better start from the Stars, which should decrease the Oilers' early shot total. A $10 bet will pay a profit of $8.62 if the bet hits, and the odds have an implied probability of 53.70%.
Best odds: -116 via Betway
Connor McDavid has adopted a shoot-first mentality, at least recently. He's even shooting knowing an assist will likely come from it, as evidenced in the first period of Game 4 when he used Oettinger like a squash player utilizes the back wall. Oettinger dually obliged, inadvertently setting Evan Bouchard up with a rebound as juicy as a ripe mango.
McDavid, with six shots in Game 3 and five in Game 4, has hit the Over in three of four Western Conference Final contests. While space should be more limited in Game 5, McDavid is one of the only players on the planet who could, with a man draped all over him, create enough space to fire on goal in a hobbit-sized shoe cupboard. The +100 odds imply a probability of 50%, and a $10 bet will pay a profit of $10.
Best odds: +100 via Betway
Jamie Benn's thirst to win his first Stanley Cup is more obvious than my statement about Game 5s. The Stars' captain is on a tear, scoring at least one point in five straight outings, including six in the last three. His line is creating the most scoring chances for the Stars, and none of the aforementioned six points have come on the power play.
Benn has a point in eight of the previous 10 contests and should be desperate to keep the streak alive. At -118, you can profit $8.47 on a winning $10 bet. The odds imply a 54.13% win probability.
Best odds: -118 via Betway
Oilers vs. Stars Game 5 info and odds
- When: Friday, May 31
- Puck drop: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas
- How to watch: TNT, Sportsnet
- Favorite: Stars (-135 via Betway)
Oilers-Stars predictions made Thursday at 11 a.m. ET.
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