The Dallas Mavericks are one win away from beating the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference Finals, and we're looking at our top Luka Doncic player props based on the best NBA odds for Game 5.
The Dallas Mavericks fell short with a chance to complete the sweep against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Now they take a 3-1 series lead back to Minnesota for Game 5 from Target Center on Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT).
While Dallas still holds shorter NBA championship odds, Minnesota is a 4.5-point favorite heading into Game 5. To advance to the NBA Finals, Dallas will need Luka Doncic to continue putting up the same video-game numbers that have helped him rise to the second-shortest NBA Finals MVP odds.
Along with our Mavericks vs. Timberwolves player props, here are our best Luka Doncic player props predictions for Thursday's Mavericks vs. Timberwolves matchup (odds via our best NBA betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Luka Doncic odds, player props
- Luka Doncic Over 8.5 assists (-120 via bet365) ????
- Luka Doncic Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (-112 via DraftKings) ????
- Luka Doncic to record a triple-double (+350 via bet365) ??
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There just aren't answers for certain players in pro sports. Patrick Mahomes, Shohei Ohtani, and Connor McDavid all fit that bill, but so does Doncic. This series against the Timberwolves has perfectly shown just how unstoppable he is offensively.
Minnesota boasts the NBA's best defense and the DPOY. Yet no matter what the Timberwolves do in the seri es, Doncic is either scoring or setting up others. Minnesota is in conflict every time he drives. He's either going to score, hit a patent lob pass to one of his bigs, or kick it out to Kyrie Irving or PJ Washington.
Doncic's passing has been on full display all postseason, and he's averaging 9.1 assists per game. He's gone Over 8.5 in five of his last seven contests, and these odds imply a 54.55% probability that happens again, according to our odds converter. A $10 bet pays out $18.33 on this prop.
Best odds: -120 via bet365
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Is Minnesota cursed? Probably, there was drafting Jonny Flynn over Steph Curry, Gary Anderson's missed field goal, and too many Minnesota Twins-related gaffes to count. So of course Doncic has managed to find his 3-point shooting form once again in the Western Conference finals.
After several games of doing his best Anthony Bennett impression, Doncic has looked as good as ever from behind the arc. He's gone 26-for-60 (43.3%) from three over his last six outings while cashing the Over on 3.5 3-pointers in five of those affairs. I don't expect him to stop shooting now with Minnesota on the brink.
These odds are longer than I was anticipating with Doncic averaging 4.3 made 3-pointers on 10.8 attempts per game against the Timberwolves. The figure implies a 52.83% win probability, with a $10 bet paying an $8.93 profit.
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings
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Already eighth all-time in triple-doubles with 77, Doncic is quickly rising up the rankings for career postseason triple-doubles. His 28 points, 15 rebounds, and 10 assists in Game 4 of the Western Conference finals moved him to ninth all-time in playoff triple-doubles, tied with Wilt Chamberlain.
This is clearly a swing for the fences heading into Game 5, but it's entirely possible for Doncic to finish with his 10th playoff triple-double. He's already tallied six triple-doubles so far this postseason, and five have come in his last seven games.
With his jaw-dropping production, Doncic is the leading scorer, rebounder, and assister in the series. However, since this is a longer shot bet with a 22.22% win probability, putting a half unit on it makes the most sense. A $5 wager on this prop would still pay a $17.50 profit.
Best odds: +350 via bet365
Luka Doncic player props picks made Thursday at 12:20 p.m. ET.
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