Saturday brings another loaded MLB slate with plenty of intriguing matchups and pitcher's duels. After studying the 15 games scheduled for today, I've narrowed the field down to my 3 favorite plays that when parlayed pay out at generous +847 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
Below I'll provide an in-depth analysis of each game and the value that lies within each pick.' For more action, be sure to check out our MLB predictions page which takes a look at some of the games not covered in this article. With that said, let's take a look at Saturday's MLB mega parlay.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros Over 8.5 (+100)
After a disappointing start to the Houston Astros' season, they appear to finally be rounding into form in mid-May. Houston is still 5 games under .500 (20-25), but they are riding a 6-game winning streak with wins in 8 of their last 9 games. Offense has never been an issue for the Astros, as they rank top-5 in wRC+, BA, OBP, and SLG. Over their last 9 games they have averaged just over 5.2 runs per game and have a strong chance to get back to .500 with upcoming series against the Angels and Athletics. The Brewers have been just as explosive at the plate, ranking within the top 3 in wRC+, runs, BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS. Over their last 8 games, Milwaukee has actually outperformed Houston by averaging 6.2 runs per game.
The two offenses combined for 9 runs on 17 hits in last night's affair and should continue to thrive in Houston this evening. Right-hander Bryse Wilson will take the mound for Milwaukee in his 6th start and 12th appearance, posting a 2.65 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. While Wilson's numbers are strong, his underlying metrics suggest serious looming regression. Wilson's xERA of 4.84 is over 2 runs higher than his actual ERA and he ranks in the 29th percentile or lower in chase rate, whiff rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rate. Equally concerning are the underlying metrics of Justin Verlander, who ranks in the 30th percentile or lower in whiff rate, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate, and ground ball rate. Verlander tossed a 2-hit, 7.0 inning shutout gem against the Tigers in his last outing, but he also surrendered 7 runs on 8 hits and 3 home runs to the Yankees in the start prior. There are too many question marks with these starters right now and both bullpens rank in the bottom third of the league in FIP. Expect the offenses to shine in this game.