The New York Mets (-120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+100) on Friday, May 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.

This season, the Mets are 20-23 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 15-30 ATS.

Mets vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Mets starting pitcher: Christian Scott 0-1, 2.84 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Jesus Luzardo 0-3, 6.10 ERA

Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 42 games (+13.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.25 Units / 36% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 31 games (+9.75 Units / 31% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+9.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Brandon Nimmo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+8.10 Units / 203% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Otto Lopez has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+22.00 Units / 440% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 29 games (+14.30 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+13.75 Units / 44% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+13.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.25 Units / 42% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.50 Units / 42% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.30 Units / 33% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.65 Units / 28% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 18 away games (+3.75 Units / 20% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+10.50 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.50 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.60 Units / 76% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+5.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.80 Units / 71% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 20-23 against the Run Line (-3.75 Units / -6.81% ROI).

• 20-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.15 Units / -6.75% ROI
• 20-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.2 Units / -7.04% ROI
• 21-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -1.68% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 15-30 against the Run Line (-21.46 Units / -36.99% ROI).

• 13-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.5 Units / -36.96% ROI
• 26-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.4 Units / 10.95% ROI
• 19-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.5 Units / -19.11% ROI

Marlins vs Mets Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Mets Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Mets RBI Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Mets Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

The last hit on a Christian Scott slider was May 4th. Hitters are 0 for their last 18 in ABs ending on his slider. — JoJo Romero has the longest active streak at 29.

The last hit on a Christian Scott breaking pitch was May 4th. Hitters are 0 for their last 18 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Clay Holmes has the longest active streak at 41.

Christian Scott has a strikeout rate of 33% (6 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 5th best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — 92nd Percentile.

Christian Scott has allowed a slugging percentage of .556 (10 Total Bases / 18 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — 10th highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .369 — 19th Percentile.

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting just .190 (58-for-305) against Jesus Luzardo when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 100th Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has a strikeout rate of 42% (16 SO in 38 PAs) versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of .815 (333 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .692 — second Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .483 (144 Total Bases / 298 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .396 — fifth Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

  
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