The Washington Nationals (+125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-150) on Sunday, May 12, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Nationals are 19-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 20-19 ATS.
Nationals vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore 2-3, 3.44 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 3-1, 3.00 ERA
Nationals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 18 away games (+21.10 Units / 117% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+15.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+14.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+12.05 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 27 games (+9.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 33 games (+8.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- Connor Wong has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games at home (+8.50 Units / 94% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+8.40 Units / 17% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 87 games (+22.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 54 away games (+4.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 24-14 against the Run Line (+8.03 Units / 16.33% ROI).
- 19-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.55 Units / 27.37% ROI
- 16-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -14.03% ROI
- 20-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.18 Units / 5.16% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 20-19 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -5.17% ROI).
- 20-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 14-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.8 Units / -25.47% ROI
- 23-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.55 Units / 17.38% ROI
Red Sox vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Garrett Cooper (CHC) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -1200 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vaughn Grissom (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Red Sox vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +105 |
| Mackenzie Gore (WAS) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 28% (187/662) against MacKenzie Gore since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (35/93) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 43% (20/46) against MacKenzie Gore on fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 42% (31/74) against MacKenzie Gore this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (45/293) against Brayan Bello since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (127/208) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (414/745) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 16% (21/129) against Brayan Bello with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.