The New York Yankees (-135) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (+110) on Saturday, May 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.

This season, the Yankees are 26-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 16-23 ATS.

Yankees vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:

• Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes 1-3, 3.73 ERA
• Rays starting pitcher: Zack Littell 1-2, 3.03 ERA

Yankees vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Yankees vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:

• Oswaldo Cabrera has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 20 away games (+23.50 Units / 117% ROI)
• Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 39 games (+14.15 Units / 36% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 32 games (+11.30 Units / 18% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.25 Units / 55% ROI)
• Anthony Volpe has hit the Total Bases Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+8.95 Units / 17% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Randy Arozarena has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games at home (+16.50 Units / 206% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+14.85 Units / 34% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.50 Units / 57% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 32 games (+10.45 Units / 23% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 41% ROI)

Yankees Best Bets Today:

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 away games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.60 Units / 29% ROI)

Rays Best Bets Today:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 60 games at home (+17.15 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 44 games (+13.50 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 58 games (+10.19 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 57 games (+7.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.26 Units / 16% ROI)

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 20-20 against the Run Line (+2.4 Units / 5.06% ROI).

• 26-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.9 Units / 10.3% ROI
• 16-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.05 Units / -18.42% ROI
• 22-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.35 Units / 9.82% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 16-23 against the Run Line (-7.5 Units / -15.37% ROI).

• 19-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.1 Units / -16.98% ROI
• 21-18 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 2.8% ROI
• 18-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -12.09% ROI

Rays vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today

Rays vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (34/131) against Nestor Cortes in two-strike counts since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (17/52) against Nestor Cortes in two-strike counts this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — sixth Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last six games dating back to April 8th — Bryse Wilson has the longest active streak at 7.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (99/317) against Nestor Cortes in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.

Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

5 of Zack Littell’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for most among among AL Starters; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .322 (19-for-59) against Zack Littell when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 3rd highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: .217 — fifth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 30% (15/50) against Zack Littell in two-strike counts this season — lowest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (40/117) against Zack Littell this season — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

  
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