The Washington Nationals (+125) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-155) on Saturday, May 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Nationals are 19-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 19-19 ATS.
Nationals vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 2-3, 3.73 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Cooper Criswell 2-1, 1.77 ERA
Nationals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 17 away games (+22.10 Units / 130% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 33 games (+13.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+13.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 33 games (+10.90 Units / 26% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 18 games (+9.50 Units / 53% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 26 games (+8.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.20 Units / 46% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 87 games (+22.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 54 away games (+4.00 Units / 6% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 24-13 against the Run Line (+9.58 Units / 20.12% ROI).
- 19-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.55 Units / 30.76% ROI
- 16-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.7 Units / -11.68% ROI
- 19-16 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.18 Units / 2.87% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 19-19 against the Run Line (-4.2 Units / -7.76% ROI).
- 19-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -2.25% ROI
- 14-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.7 Units / -23.49% ROI
- 22-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.55 Units / 15.47% ROI
Red Sox vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1100 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -1200 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Vaughn Grissom (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Joey Meneses (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jacob Young (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Dominic Smith (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Red Sox vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cooper Criswell (BOS) | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -140 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has walked 1 of 75 right-handed batters (1%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.
Jake Irvin’s K:BB ratio is 16.0 (16/1) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.4 — 98th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has a strikeout rate of just 11% (7 SO in 63 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 35% (22/62) against Jake Irvin this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 16th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (27/160) against Cooper Criswell since last season — tied for 3rd lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 27% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (74/408) against Cooper Criswell since last season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Cooper Criswell has a strikeout rate of just 34% (43 SO in 126 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Cooper Criswell has struck out just 15% (17/110) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 4th lowest among AL Relievers; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.