UFC Fight Night Betting Preview
UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night predictions and picks for May 11th with Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento headlining the main event in a heavyweight fight. The main card starts up at 7:00pm ET from the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, MO.
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Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento: UFC Fight Night Main Event
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UFC Fight Night Predictions
JJ Aldrich +120 v Veronica Hardy -142
I think Hardy has Aldrich covered here and I expect her to win. Her movement and activity on the feet is a bit better, and she has more physicality and strength in the wrestling and clinch.
Aldrich won't have the volume to make Hardy uncomfortable, and I think she's going to look a half step behind through most of the fight.
It's women's MMA so who knows what the judges will do in a close fight, so the best bet in this one is to take it to go the distance. Both fighters have good cardio and defense so I don't see a finish happening.
Kevin Jousset -238 v Jared Gooden +195
I'm not high on either of these guys, but I would say Jousset has the higher ceiling. Gooden isn't crisp on the feet and his wrestling game isn't very good, and even though he's coming off an ITD win, it was against Wellington Turman, and it wasn't great.
Jousset's problem is his lack of volume on the feet. It's like he thinks too much before striking, and I wish he would throw more because he's good at maintaining range and his accuracy is good, but his lack of volume gives opponents a lot of chances to strike against him.
Jousset should win this fight as I think he'll do more damage, but I can't bet on this fight because the lack of volume concerns me.
Jake Hadley -175 v Charles Johnson +145
I think this is a great spot to fade Charles Johnson after he got the win against Maksum, and Hadley is coming off a loss in a great fight against Cody Durden. Hadley's ground game will be the difference here as I think it's even on the feet.
Johnson is great at defending on the ground, but he doesn't have offense and Hadley's ground game is creative and effective.
Johnson will need to keep this on the feet in order to win rounds, but Hadley's takedown game should be good enough for him to control where this fight takes place. I like this fight to go the distance as both guys have great cardio and great defense.
Trey Waters -170 v Billy Goff +142
Goff is an exciting fighter with tons of forward pressure and volume, but he's like a frat guy at a party that goes too hard too early. It's worked against the weak competition he's faced so far, but I think it's going to backfire in this one.
Waters had a really good UFC debut against Josh Quinlan, and his cardio and jabs that he showed against Quinlan will work great against Goff. Goff will be too wild at first, and if he doesn't get the finish he'll tire out and Waters will be able to land strikes from distance.
This fight will expose the lack of patience from Goff, and long-term it will be a good thing for him, but Waters should get the win here.
Tabatha Ricci -130 v Tecia Torres +110
We have a fade-the-baby theory here as Tecia Torres gave birth last June, and this is her first fight back. She hasn't fought in 2 years, and she hasn't won in 3 years so it's going to be hard to make the case to bet on her…so I won't.
Ricci has been the more active fighter, and she's coming off a really tough split-decision loss to Loopy Godinez that could have easily gone her way. Torres had decent cardio before the layoff, but I can't see it being as good, and the same can be said for her striking.
I think Ricci has more volume on the feet in this one and shows more activity, and I'm always going to be betting on the fade-the-baby theory. Ricci is the play.
Esteban Ribovics -185 v Terrance McKinney +154
It's a Terrance McKinney fight so take the under. He's never been to decision in 21 pro fights so I don't see why it would change here. As for who will win this fight, I can't believe Ribovics is this big of a favorite. He's not that good of a UFC fighter despite his 12-1 record.
He lost his UFC debut, and he beat Kamuela Kirk in his last fight, and Kirk is awful. His striking doesn't scare anyone, and he's not great on the ground either.