Borussia Dortmund takes their slim 1-0 advantage on the road when they face PSG at Parc des Princes in the return leg of the Champions League semifinals on Tuesday, and here's our expert prediction based on the best Champions League odds.
Our best sports betting sites have PSG as the decisive favorite to advance to the Champions League final despite their narrow defeat in Dortmund last week. That's mainly due to Dortmund's away frailties. They've lost three of five in unfriendly environments, including a 2-0 setback to PSG in the opening group match.
The German side's road woes date back much further in the Champions League knockout stages, where they've secured just one win in their last 11 matches (9 losses, 1 draw). PSG, the -200 favorite to win Tuesday's semifinal, has won three of five at Parc de Princes but los t 3-2 to Barcelona in the opening leg of the quarterfinals. Kickoff in Paris is at 3 p.m ET.
Here is our best PSG vs. Dortmund prediction and soccer picks (odds via our best soccer betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund game info
- Date: Tuesday, May 7 at 3 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS, Paramount+, DAZN (Canada)
- Location: Parc des Princes, Paris, France
- Weather: 57 Fahrenheit, clear
- Favorite: PSG (-200 via bet365)
PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund odds
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG | -200 | -1.5 (+125) | Over 3.5 (+125) |
| Dortmund | +550 | +1.5 (-165) | Under 3.5 (-155) |
PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund prediction
The most obvious and best bet for this match is for Mbappe to hit the scoresheet at least once. The Frenchman has eight goals in 11 matches, level with Harry Kane atop the competition's goalscoring chart. He was unfortunate not to score in the opening leg, hitting the woodwork despite being neutralized for the most part by a stubborn and well-organized Dortmund defense.
Dortmund's defense at Signal Iduna Park is far more watertight than on the road. Dortmund conceded two goals in Paris in the group stage with Mbappe getting in on the scoring act. He's scored a goal in four of PSG's five home matches in the competition.
He failed to score at home against Barcelona in the opening leg of the quarterfinal but followed that goose egg with a brace in the return leg. Mbappe takes all PSG's penalties, too, which could prove decisive for this prop. Three of his eight goals have come from the spot, including two at Parc des Princes.
Plus, Mbappe is almost assuredly leaving PSG at the end of the season after spending seven years in the French capital, making Tuesday his last home Champions League match with the Parisians. I can't think of a more Mbappe-like ending than to fill the old onion bag one last time in front of his adorning PSG supporters.
Best odds: -138 via bet365
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PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund odds analysis
Of our best sports betting apps, bet365 offers the best value for Mbappe to score, and it's not even close. You'll want to lock in the wager as soon as you can before the odds tighten to align with the other sportsbooks. As of Sunday morning, BetMGM offered -182, Caesars -200, and FanDuel -165.
At -138, a $10 winning bet would pay a profit of $7.25. The -138 odds come with an implied probability of 57.98%.
PSG vs. Borussia Dortmund prediction made Sunday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
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