The San Diego Padres (-105) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) on Sunday, May 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix, AZ.

This season, the Padres are 18-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 15-19 ATS.

Padres vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:

• Padres starting pitcher: Matt Waldron 1-3, 4.36 ERA
• Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 1-2, 4.60 ERA

Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 52.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:

• Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 away games (+28.50 Units / 238% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+15.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.10 Units / 48% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.35 Units / 38% ROI)
• Jackson Merrill has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+9.65 Units / 121% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Kevin Newman has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+17.50 Units / 292% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+14.95 Units / 81% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.75 Units / 53% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.65 Units / 54% ROI)
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 14 games at home (+12.05 Units / 40% ROI)

Padres Best Bets Today:

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 69 of their last 130 games (+11.55 Units / 8% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+6.75 Units / 20% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.82 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 61 games (+9.29 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+7.75 Units / 9% ROI)

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Padres are 18-18 against the Run Line (+2.05 Units / 4.78% ROI).

• 18-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.1 Units / -4.68% ROI
• 19-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 4.34% ROI
• 16-19 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -12.5% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 15-19 against the Run Line (-6.5 Units / -14.76% ROI).

• 14-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -9 Units / -20.95% ROI
• 14-19 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -18.54% ROI
• 19-14 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 10.38% ROI

Diamondbacks vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Matt Waldron has a strikeout rate of just 6% (1 SO in 18 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 21% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 13% (23/177) against Matt Waldron in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 19% (50/262) against Matt Waldron this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 10% (6/58) against Matt Waldron when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .352 (96-for-273) against Ryne Nelson at home since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 0 Percentile.

Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .612 (167 Total Bases / 273 ABs) at home since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .407 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 17% (88/508) against Ryne Nelson since last season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.

Ryne Nelson has allowed a slugging percentage of .550 (132 Total Bases / 240 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: .418 — third Percentile.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

  
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