With a loaded Cinco de Mayo slate featuring all 30 MLB teams in action, this Sunday should be an entertaining one in the world of baseball. We have Cy Young contending aces taking the mound, as well as struggling arms attempting to make it back to the big leagues. I have found 2 plays that stand out to me as value at plus money prices this morning and have explained why I like them below. Let’s dive in!
Atlanta Braves first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (+105)
I mentioned on Wednesday how May is a good month for locating pitchers who are clear regression candidates, and James Paxton is someone who stands out to me. His 3.51 ERA through his first 25.2 innings of the season are shadowed by some extremely worrisome underlying metrics. The southpaw ranks 2nd percentile in walk rate this season with his opponents drawing free passes a remarkable 19.3% of the time. That walk rate is higher than 19 different qualified starting pitcher’s strikeout rates this season. Paxton’s own K% is a paltry 13.2%, the 5th lowest mark among pitchers with 20 or more innings of work. He is generating chases on pitches outside the zone at just a 7th percentile mark, and when in the zone opponents are making him pay as well. Paxton sits just 12th percentile with opponents generating a 46.8% hard-hit rate against him through his first 77 batted balls. His 9.1%-barrel rate is another worrisome aspect to his game, especially when facing tougher lineups w ith power like the Atlanta Braves.
Paxton has walked 5, 1, 8, 3, and 5 batters in his 5 starts, and his 58.1% strike rate is the 4th lowest mark among qualified pitchers. With how many baserunners he has been allowing he is extremely fortunate to have an ERA in the mid-3’s. His current 82.1% LOB% is 7.2% higher than last season and his highest mark since a 4-start sample as a rookie. Opponents just haven’t been able to capitalize on their golden opportunities, but Paxton’s 6.16 xERA, 5.57 FIP, 6.23 xFIP, 6.83 SIERA, and -6.3% K-BB% are all pointing to an ensuing blowup.