Today marks the beginning of May baseball, and historically May has been one of my favorite months to bet on the sport. We can see overreactions from hot starts, underreactions to players in decline, and a lot can change about what we think we know. There is a play standing out to me in the Phillies Angels game today that I would like to highlight. Let’s dive in!
Philadelphia Phillies first 5 innings -0.5 (-120)
The Phillies offense had a slow start to 2024, but they have turned a corner with the weather warming up. With 5 or more runs scored in each of the last 6 games and 12 of the last 14, the bats have awoken and are now producing at the level fans hoped for entering this year. The bottom of the order is beginning to step up and contribute which makes them far tougher to deal with. Having Alec Bohm in his current form is also a luxury as he has entered the cleanup spot and is producing at an elite level. Today their offense gets a matchup against Patrick Sandoval, the 2nd consecutive southpaw they will see after facing Tyler Anderson last night.
I often bet against Sandoval as he struggles with efficiency and his results are often middling or poor. The southpaw clearly has talent but struggles to put it together consistently, especially against good lineups. Sandoval’s last start was his first this season without issuing multiple free passes, but he instead allowed 9 hits including a home run to a worse Twins offense. His start prior resulted in 6 hits, 5 walks, and 7 earned runs allowed against the Reds. Now facing a patient lineup that draws walks and hits for power, I am not a fan of Sandoval’s matchup today.