UFC 301 Odds – Latest Pantoja vs. Erceg Betting Lines

Alexandre Pantoja and Steve Erceg headline UFC 301 on Saturday with the flyweight title on the line, and we have you covered with our look at the UFC 301 odds and betting lines from our best UFC betting sites.

Brazilian fighter Alexandre Pantoja will defend his flyweight belt against Steve Erceg at UFC 301 on Saturday. Pantoja is one of 14 Brazilian fighters on the card, which will take place at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro.

Pantoja has held the flyweight belt since topping Brandon Moreno in July 2023 and defended it against Brandon Royval in December. The judges decided both bouts, with Pantoja picking up split-decision and unanimous-decision victories, respectively.

While it may not be the UFC's event of the year that we discuss in our McGregor vs. Chandler odds, the UFC 301 card is lined with incredible fights and exciting fighters and should prove to be an excellent card. The action gets underway with the early prelims at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the main card on pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET.

Here's our breakdown of the UFC 301 odds and betting lines for Saturday's full card to help with your UFC picks (odds via our best sports betting sites).

UFC 301 odds – Main Card

Odds updated Monday.

Pantoja has a chance to defend his flyweight belt for the second time in front of the home crowd on Saturday. Caesars is offering the best line on the champ, with a 65.52% implied win percentage that would profit $5.26 on a winning $10 wager.

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Martinez puts a six-fight win streak on the line when he takes on Aldo on Saturday. “Junior” Aldo is one of the older fighters on the card at 37 years old and is +136 at DraftKings to pick up the underdog victory. The line implies a 42.37% win probability and returns a profit of $13.60 on a winning $10 wager.

Vitor Petrino has won all 11 of his professional bouts, including four straight since arriving at the UFC level. Oddsmakers expect more of the same on Saturday, where his -556 line at BetMGM profits just $1.80 on a $10 bet and has an 84.76% implied win probability.

Another fighter who will look to benefit from home cooking is Pereira, although he may not have to rely on the home crowd. Pereira hasn't lost since 2000, with decisions, submission, and knockouts along the way. His shortest odds are -535 at DraftKings, where a winning $10 wager results in just a $1.87 profit and has an 84.25% implied win probability.

The main card gets underway with a steep test for the Scottish fighter, Craig, who has lost three of his last four bouts. Borralho has just one loss on his professional record, in 2015 when he was in Bradar Fight promotion. His best line is -455 at BetMGM, which has an 81.98% implied win probability and profits $2.20 on a $10 wager.

UFC 301 odds – Prelims

Shore may have just one loss on his professional resume, but he's a slight underdog versus Brito on Saturday. “Tubarao” Brito is a well-rounded fighter who has alternated KO/TKO and submission victories over his last four fights and hasn't been out of the second round along that span. His -165 line at Caesars carries a 62.26% implied win probability and pays $16.06 on a $10 bet if he pulls out the win.

Lucindo is 16 years younger and has a two-inch reach advantage over her competitor. Her -333 line at BetMGM stands out in a market where she is lined at -400 or shorter at our other best sports betting sites. She has a 76.91% win probability and profits an even $3 on a $10 bet. 

Brener brings a five-fight win streak into this bout, although only three have come at the UFC level. Orolbai carries his own seven-fight win streak, although only one was in the UFC. The Kyrgyzstan fighter has gone to the judges only once since 2020, and is lined as short as -275 at Caesars. That line comes with a $3.64 profit on a $10 wager and carries a 73.33% implied win percentage.

“Lord” Silva is set for his second fight of 2024 after picking up a KO/TKO victory in the first round over West Wilson at UFC Fight Night on January 13. His best line is the -163 being hung at bet365 where a $10 bet would turn out a $6.13 profit, although with just a 61.98% implied win percentage.

UFC 301 odds – Early prelims

Silva has struggled in recent bouts, with just two wins in his last five fights. Naturally, he's an underdog despite fighting at home in Brazil, and the best line you can get him at is the +142 at DraftKings where a $10 bet profits $14.20, although he has just a 41.32% implied win percentage.

Mullarkey was an active fighter in 2023, going 2-2 with two unanimous-decision wins and two KO/TKO losses. However, this is his first trip to the Octagon in 2024, and oddsmakers aren't convinced. Ruffy is lined as short as -174 at FanDuel, which comes with a $5.75 profit on a $10 bet and has a 63.50% implied win probability.

Barbosa is making her UFC debut after last fighting in DWCS back in September. The 31-year-old Brazilan fighter, nicknamed “The Witch”, is a relatively heavy favorite over the much younger Kareckaite. The -205 line at DraftKings has implied win odds of 67.21% and pays $14.88 on a winning $10 wager for a profit of $4.88.

Pichel is the only fighter north of 40 years old on this card, giving up 13 years to the 28-year-old Bonfim. Bonfim is the first of many fighters on the night lined at -500 or steeper, profiting just $2.11 with a victory on a $10 bet on the standout high -475 at Caesars.

UFC 301 gets underway with two fighters looking to get back in the win column after losing their last fights. “Nono” Costa is 1-2 in the UFC since making the jump in 2022, but is a slight favorite over the contender Borjas. The -139 at BetMGM is the best line available on the local boy, with a 58.16% implied win probability and paying $17.19 on a $10 wager.

UFC 301 fight info

• When: Saturday, May 4
• Where: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
• How to watch: Early Prelims on ESPN+ (6 p.m. ET); Prelims on ESPN2/ESPN+ (8 p.m. ET); Main Card on Pay-per-view (10 p.m. ET)

How to read UFC betting odds

Understanding UFC betting odds is essential for making informed wagers. Let's break it down with examples:

• Positive odds (+): Positive odds indicate the potential profit on a $100 wager. For instance, if a fighter has o dds of +250, it means that a $100 bet on that fighter would yield a profit of $250 if they win the fight. So, your total payout would be $350 ($250 profit + $100 original stake).
• Negative odds (-): Negative odds represent the amount you need to wager to win $100 in profit. For example, if a fighter has odds of -150, it means that you would need to bet $150 to win $100 in profit if that fighter wins. Your total payout would be $250 ($100 profit + $150 original stake).

Now, let's consider an actual UFC betting scenario:

• Fighter A: +200
• Fighter B: -180

For Fighter A (+200), a $100 bet would result in a $200 profit, making the total payout $300. For Fighter B (-180), you would need to wager $180 to win $100 in profit, resulting in a total payout of $280.

Understanding these odds helps you evaluate the potential payout and implied probability of each fighter winning a UFC fight. Positive odds indicate an underdog, while negative odds signify a favorite.

Here are our best UFC betting sites:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

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* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)

  
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