Led by a healthy Joel Embiid, the Philadelphia 76ers host the Miami Heat in the NBA Play-In Tournament, and we're offering our top Heat vs. 76ers player props based on the best NBA odds.
After playing in the NBA Play-In Tournament last season and still managing to reach the NBA Finals, the Miami Heat (46-36) hope to do it again as they go up against the Philadelphia 76ers (47-35) at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN) on Wednesday at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, Pa.
While Miami has been among the NBA Play-In Tournament odds favorites for much of the season, the 76ers had grander aspirations until Joel Embiid went down with an injury. But now that he's healthy, Philadelphia looks poised to rise in the NBA Championship odds race. To do that though, the Sixers will have to take down the Heat, and they're expected to as a 4.5-point favorite across our best sports betting sites.
Here are our best Heat vs. 76ers player props and NBA picks (odds via our
best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Heat vs. 76ers player props
- Joel Embiid Over 11.5 rebounds (+100 via FanDuel) ???
- Jimmy Butler Under 23.5 points (-102 via FanDuel) ???
- Tyrese Maxey Over 6.5 assists (-120 via FanDuel) ????
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Heat vs. 76ers prop bet predictions
The reigning NBA MVP looks like himself after returning from injury to play in five of the 76ers' final seven regular season games. If not for injury, Embiid would likely have been among the NBA MVP odds favorites down the stretch and he's certainly played at an MVP level since returning. While his scoring has been the most impressive p iece of his game since getting healthy, the Heat have one of the best defenses in the NBA.
With Miami ranking fifth in defensive rating (112.2) and allowing the second-fewest points in the league to centers (20.22), we're opting to go with Embiid's rebounds prop with his points line set a little high for our liking (30.5).
His rebounds prop also jumps out because of the value. At even-money via FanDuel, a $10 bet on this would lead to a $10 profit if he pulls down at least 12 boards. Our odds calculator gives him a 50% chance of doing so with these odds.
The biggest reason Embiid should be positioned to hit the Over is because of Miami's inconsistent rebounding. The Heat are just 26th in rebounds per game this season (42.3) and allow the 11th most defensive rebounds to opponents (33.5). Even with Bam Adebayo as its frontcourt anchor, opposing centers average 14.21 rebounds per game against the Heat. That bodes well for Embiid, who is averaging 12 boards per game over his last three games.
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Known for playing at another level come the playoffs, Jimmy Butler seems to have taken a step back this season and we're not so sure he'll be the same difference-maker in the NBA Play-In Tournament this year. Going up against his old team will be a challenge, too. Philly allows just 20.51 points per game to small forwards. Considering that, we're taking the Under on Butler's point total.
The -102 odds at FanDuel imply a 50.49% probability Butler scores fewer than 24 points with a $10 wager paying out $19.80 if he does hit the Under. While it's tough to justify betting against a man nicknamed “Playoff Jimmy,” it's clear he's taken a backseat to other players this season. Butler may lead the team in points per game with 20.8, but he's behind Tyler Herro, Terry Rozier, and Adebayo in usage rate.
Even if Rozier isn't healthy enough to play against the 76ers, Butler isn 't necessarily the go-to scorer anymore. He's behind all three of those players in field goal attempts per game and has seen his free throw attempts per game drop to its lowest since 2018-19. With fewer opportunities, it's going to be hard for Butler to get his against a defense that's ninth in the NBA in points allowed (111.5).
Now that Embiid is healthy and back in the lineup, All-Star Tyrese Maxey doesn't have to carry the scoring load quite as much and can be less of a pure scorer and more of a playmaker. Against this disciplined Heat defense it's hard to find holes, but Miami ranks in the middle of the pack in assists allowed per game. It's a defense that can be susceptible to allowing lead guards to set up their surrounding scoring talent.
Miami gives up the ninth most assists per game to point guards in the NBA (8.83) and Maxey can take advantage, especially with Embiid back. Maxey's averaging a tea m-leading 6.2 assists per game and that number would be higher if he hadn't lost Embiid for more than half the season. Prior to Embiid's injury at the end of January, Maxey was averaging 6.6 assists through the first four months of the season – and a season-high 6.8 in January.
With Embiid back, Maxey can feed him and pick up apples against Miami. The -120 odds imply a 54.55% probability that Maxey will finish with at least seven assists. And while the odds are slightly shorter than we want, a $10 bet still pays out $18.33
Heat vs. 76ers game info & odds
- When: Wednesday, April 17
- Tip-off: 7 p.m. ET
- Where: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pa.
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: 76ers -4.5 (-110 via DraftKings)
Heat-76ers player props made Monday at 2:20 p.m. ET.
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