One of the primary favorites to hoist the 2023-24 Champions League will be out of the competition this week, as Manchester City welcome Real Madrid to the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday for the second leg of their quarterfinal, and we have our expert prediction based on the best Champions League odds.
Real Madrid and Manchester City put on a show in last week's first leg at the Bernabeu. The 3-3 draw followed last season's semifinal script when the juggernauts entered the second leg level tied at one.
Manchester City are the comprehensive -310 favorites to advance, thanks to their aura of invincibility at the Etihad. City haven't lost at home in the Champions League since 2018, a run of 30 matches. Our best sports betting sites have them as the consensus favorite to win the second leg.
The occasion won't overawe Real Madrid despite losing 4-0 at th e Etihad in the second leg of last season's semifinal. They are La Liga's best away team, losing just once in 16 matches. Madrid, who've won all four away contests in the competition thus far, can't possibly be as poor as they were the last time they traveled to the north of England.
Along with our Borussia Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid and Barcelona vs. PSG picks, here is our best Manchester City vs. Real Madrid prediction and soccer picks (odds via our best soccer betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid game info
- Date: Wednesday, April 17, 3 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Location: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, England
- Weather: 48 degrees, sunny
- Favorite: Manchester City (-150)
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | -155 | -0.5 (-170) | Over 2.5 (-175) |
| Real Madrid | +400 | +0.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (+140) |
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid prediction
While all sensational records eventually fall, Manchester City's 30-match unbeaten run at the Etihad in the Champions League should remain intact for at least one more game.
Pep Guardiola's side is fully fit and in no mood to let any team, including Real Madrid, get in its way of repeating as champion. It's not just City's home record in the competition that leaves jaws agape. They haven't lost at the Etihad in 28 Premier League matches, dating back to Nov. 12, 2022.
City averages 2.53 goals per home contest in the Premier League and three in the Champions League. Their outrageous home unbeaten streak has one minor blemish, and it focuses on their defensive play. City kept a clean sheet in just four of the previous 14 Premier League matches and one of four in the Champions League, which will fill Carlo Ancelotti's side with belief.
City are on a 27-match unbeaten run in all competitions, while Real Madrid haven't had to deal with the sour taste of defeat in 14 contests, but something will have to give on Wednesday. If any team can pull off the upset, it's Madrid. Unfortunately, they have too many holes defensively to beat a team that can't recall what it feels like to lose on its home patch.
Best odds: +120 via DraftKings
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Manchester City vs. Real Madrid odds analysis
There are two similar markets that you might find as appealing. You can back a City win + Over 1.5 goals, offered by DraftKings at -120. It's a safer bet that would pay out $18.33 on a winning $10 bet. If you're feeling slightly braver, lock in Man City to win and both teams to score, which BetMGM offers at +190. That would pay out $29 on a $10 wager.
DraftKings' +120 on a City win and Over 2.5 goals implies a probability of 45.45%. A $10 winning bet pays out $22. The line might shorten slightly in the lead-up to kick-off but should remain relatively stable.
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid prediction made Monday at 1:37 p.m. ET.
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