Atletico Madrid travels to Signal Iduna Park to play Borussia Dortmund in the second leg of their Champions League quarterfinal on Tuesday, and we have our Dortmund vs. Atletico prediction based on the best Champions League odds.
This quarterfinal matchup hangs in the balance after Atletico Madrid held on to a 2-1 home victory in the opening leg.
Borussia Dortmund lost two of their previous three games in all competitions and fell 1-0 to Stuttgart in their last Bundesliga home match. They've won only four of their previous 10 home matches in all competitions, including two of four in the Champions League.
While Signal Iduna Park hasn't been Dortmund's impenetrable fortress from seasons past, Atletico Madrid isn't exactly thriving on their travels. They've won just twice in the last six away La Liga matches and have one win, one loss, and two ties in four away Champions League contests. They've also failed to score in four of their last six away outings.
Here is our best Dortmund vs. Atletico prediction and soccer picks (odds via our best soccer betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dortmund vs. Atletico game info
- Date: April 16 at 3 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Location: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany
- Weather: 46 degrees, light rain
- Favorite: Dortmund (+125 via DraftKings)
Dortmund vs. Atletico odds
Odds via DraftKings as Sunday at 12:20 p.m. ET
| Teams | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | +125 | -0.5 (+115) | Over 2.5 (-155) |
| Atletico Madrid | +210 | +0.5 (-155) | Under 2.5 (+125) |
Dortmund vs. Atletico prediction
Antoine Griezman is a perennial goal threat, which he has repeatedly proven on the world's biggest and most high-pressure stages. The 33-year-old veteran has six Champions League goals and, according to our Champions League odds, is the fourth-favorite to win the Golden Boot.
The Frenchman assisted on Samuel Lino's first-half goal in the opening leg, his first helper of the competition. Griezmann has a goal or assist in the last two Champions League matches and three of the previous four. He has four goals and an assist in the last six Champions League matches and scored a brace against Girona in La Liga on Saturday.
He also takes the team's penalties, increasing Griezmann's chances of getting on the scoresheet.
If Atletico scores, there's a high likelihood that Griezmann will be involved.  ;
Best odds: +115 via FanDuel
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The longer Borussia Dortmund remains behind on aggregate, the more desperate they'll become. The German side should set the tone from kickoff, hoping to make the renowned extra-man effect from the raucous support at Signal Iduna Park count. Dortmund had eight corners in the first leg and average 5.67 per match in the Champions League.
Light rain is expected for the encounter, making it slightly more challenging for defenders to mop up cleanly and without incident. While Dortmund secured at least six corners in only two of their previous four home Champions League matches, the conditions and added air of desperation should push them over the 5.5-corner threshold.
In addition, Atletico often defends deep and has a propensity to concede corners in bunches, especially in hostile environments. They allowed 10 at Feyenoord and 11 at Lazio in the group stage.
Best odds: -130 v ia FanDuel
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Dortmund vs. Atletico odds analysis
Of our best sports betting sites, FanDuel offers the best value and odds for the corners market, providing -130 for Borussia Dortmund to obtain at least six corners. DraftKings offers +115 for Over 6.5 corners. While the plus-money value is appealing, expecting Dortmund to get seven corners is far less likely. The implied probability of Over 5.5 at -130 is 56.52%, while Over 6.5 at DraftKings comes with an implied probability of 46.51%. A winning $10 bet on Over 5.5 corners pays out $17.69.
While bet365 and FanDuel provide odds for the goal or assist market, FanDuel offers the better value, albeit marginally. The +115 for Griezmann to score or assist implies a 46.51% probability, and a winning $10 wager pays out $21.50. bet365 offers +100 odds, which would pay out $20.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Atletico Madrid prediction made Sunday at noon ET.
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