The Arizona Diamondbacks (+180) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-225) on Sunday, April 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.

This season, the Diamondbacks are 4-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 3-4 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:

• Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Ryne Nelson 0-1, 13.51 ERA
• Braves starting pitcher: Chris Sale 0-0, 3.60 ERA

Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 64.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:

• Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.95 Units / 36% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.40 Units / 43% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 away games (+11.10 Units / 57% ROI)
• Zac Gallen has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+11.10 Units / 21% ROI)
• Merrill Kelly has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+10.90 Units / 30% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Over in his last 6 games (+6.90 Units / 56% ROI)
• Sam Hilliard has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 48% ROI)
• Jarred Kelenic has hit the Singles Over in his last 4 games (+5.95 Units / 149% ROI)
• Sam Hilliard has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+5.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Spencer Strider has hit the Earned Runs Over in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+5.25 Units / 22% ROI)

Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 99 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 50 of their last 83 away games (+13.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 83 away games (+11.36 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 63 games (+11.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 93 games (+10.82 Units / 10% ROI)

Braves Best Bets Today:

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 91 of their last 157 games (+21.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+13.64 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.25 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+4.61 Units / 5% ROI)

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 7-2 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 42.48% ROI).

• 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -13.33% ROI
• 6-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 24.64% ROI
• 3-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.25 Units / -34.21% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Braves are 3-4 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -11.83% ROI).

• 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 13.21% ROI
• 5-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.95 Units / 52.32% ROI
• 1-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -57.96% ROI

Braves vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

Braves vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Ryne Nelson had an ERA of 6.80 (46.1 IP) against division opponents in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.27 — second Percentile.

Ryne Nelson has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.7 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season (95 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 132 total IP; League Avg: 89.8

Ryne Nelson has a strikeout rate of just 31% (98 SO in 314 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 45 of Ryne Nelson’s 186 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 24%) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 34% — first Percentile.

Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents had a chase percentage of 43% (84/195) against Chris Sale with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 48% (165/347) against Chris Sale with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 99th Percentile.

Chris Sale has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 88% (15/17) of opposing batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 2 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 44% (90/206) against Chris Sale with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

  
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