| Matchup | Dolphins vs. Ravens |
| Day, Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| Best Book | DraftKings |
Waddle's role within the Dolphins offense has changed in 2022 following the Tyreek Hill addition. We already knew his target share was going to take a hit, but his Average Depth of Target (aDOT) has risen from 6.8 to 9.5 so far after one game.
If this trend continues, which I think it will, we should expect Waddle's 74% catch rate from last season to drop into the 66-70% range this year. When it comes to his yardage production, it'll likely all come out as a wash for Waddle, but his average receptions per game could take a hit as a result.
Therefore, I'm seeing some slight value in his Under 5.5 receptions here and have him finishing under this 60% of the time. I would only bet it at -120.