On Tuesday, a whopping five more NCAA tournament automatic bids will be earned, and we offer our top college basketball player props and best bets based on the best college basketball odds.
Tuesday's college basketball action has an equal amount of new conference tournaments starting as it does conference tournaments wrapping up with their championship games. Today's five automatic bids will come from the CAA, Horizon, NEC, Summit, and West Coast Conference. In addition, the opening round games in the A-10, ACC, Big 12, CUSA, and MAAC begin. There are 23 games spread throughout the day, with the action getting started as early as 11:30 a.m. ET between Davidson and Fordham.
Here are our college basketball player props and best bets for Tuesday (college basketball picks based on odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Tuesday's college basketball best bets
- Brandon Garrison Under 7.5 points vs. UCF (+100 via DraftKings) ???
- Quinten Post Over 1.5 3-pointers vs. Miami (+120 via DraftKings, bet365) ????
- Wagner-Merrimack Under 119.5 (-105 via FanDuel) ????
- Manhattan +8 vs. Iona (-110 via Caesars, DraftKings, bet365) ????
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Tuesday's college basketball schedule and odds
(Odds via Caesars)
- Stony Brook vs. Charleston | Spread: Charleston -7.5 | Total: 157
- Milwaukee vs. Oakland | Spread: Oakland -4.5 | Total: 153
- Wagner vs. Merrimack | Spread: Merrimack -7.5 | Total: 119
- Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's | Spread: Gonzaga -3 | Total: 139.5
- Denver vs. South Dakota State | Spread: South Dakota State -8.5 | Total: 162
Tuesday's college basketball player props
Oklahoma State freshman Brandon Garrison must stay on the floor in the team's opening-round game against UCF, as he is the only Cowboys player in the starting lineup taller than 6-foot-5. However, he has fouled out in two of the previous five games and played more than 21 minutes twice. That limited playing time has lowered his offensive ceiling considerably, as he has gone over this projected total just once in the last five games and has scored four or fewer points three times. One of those games were he both fouled out and scored four points was in a Feb. 28th home loss to UCF, where Garrison went just 1-for-5 from the floor.
Garrison must deal again with a UCF defense that ranks 12th in over all efficiency, per Haslametrcis, and who held the two best teams in the conference – Houston and Iowa State – to an average of 63.5 points in the last week of the regular season. The Knights rank 26th nationally in defending inside the arc (45.9% allowed), which has us rushing to the betting window to bet Garrison's Under at a relatively cheap price.
DraftKings lowered its line from -105 to +100 overnight, and since bet365 remained at -105, we are headed to DraftKings for the best value.
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Boston College and Miami met twice during the regular season, and in each game, Boston College center Quinten Post lit the Hurricanes up for three 3-pointers, shooting a combined 6-of-11 from beyond the arc in those matchups. Post has only made multiple 3-pointers in three of his last eight games, but considering both were against Miami, we see no reason why that would change and why we would pass up plus-money odds for this play.
It would behoove Boston College to continue to attack Miami in this regard, with Post pulling Hurricanes center Norchad Omier away from the rim. And we must question Miami's motivation level entering this tournament, as the Hurricanes have lost nine consecutive games, a place they never thought they would be coming off their Final Four run last year. Miami has allowed the 13th-highest percentage from 3-point range in ACC play, and we expect the Eagles to take full advantage of one of the Hurricanes' biggest weaknesses while aiming for a third straight season with at least one win in the ACC tournament.
You can get the same +120 odds for this wager at DraftKings or by using our bet365 bonus code: SBRBONUS.
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Tuesday's college basketball game picks
At first glance, this low total seems like an overreaction based on the two teams' semifinal games, neither of which exceeded 122 points. However, there is something to be said about the familiarity of playing the same opponents for a third time in a season and the pressure that is ratcheted up in win-or-go-home games of this magnitude. We believe that this Wagner-Merrimack will be every bit the rock fight that the total suggests, especially with how effective each team's zone defense is.
Wagner was always considered a live underdog against Central Connecticut State last round, especially since two total points decided the two regular-season meetings between those teams. However, the Seahawks impressively held the Blue Devils to just 56 points, as their matchup zone pressure completely neutralized an offense that entered the game with a 90th percentile off-the-ball cut rate at a 90th percentile efficiency rating, per Synergy.
Merrimack, less surprisingly, held Le Moyne to just 51 points and 6-of-20 (30%) shooting from beyond the arc. The Dolphins entered the game, scoring just 0.64 points per possession against the Warriors' zone.
Both teams extending their zone looks will completely kill the tempo in this game, and the offense will not be initiated until deep in the shot clock on most possessions. The Under is a combined 4-0 in these teams' four conference tournament games, and we expect it to be on the right side of the total once again.
FanDuel is the only one of our top sports betting sites where bettors can get this O/U at 119.5 and pay less than the standard -110 juice to back the Under. Several other competing sportsbooks offer a total of 119, but if the total got any lower, we would lose all value with a new number, so this is a play only to 119.
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Iona bounced back from a four-game losing streak to win two of its final three regular-season games heading into this MAAC tournament, but the lone loss in that span was a 77-60 road loss to Manhattan. While the Jaspers went a disappointing 4-16 in conference play this season, we are surprised by the lofty point spread in this matchup given their recent dominance of the Gaels, especially since Iona is just 2-4 SU since leading scorer Greg Gordon left the program for personal reasons.
Iona's calling card defensively is to turn opponents over, as it ranks ninth nationally in turnover rate forced, and that number increases from 22.5% to a MAAC best 23.1% in league play. While Manhattan did commit 14 turnovers in the last meeting, it also carved up Iona's over-aggressive defense for 27 assists on 32 made field goals. Thus, Iona's defense is not built to take advantage of Manhattan's weakness of limited isolation shot creators, as the Jaspers should continue to have success moving the ball and finding the open man, just as they did all year by assisting on a league-best 58.6% of their made field goals this season.
Manhattan is a solid 4-2-1 ATS in neutral site games since 2021, while Iona is nowhere near as feared as the NCAA tournament teams it produced in two of the previous three seasons, covering the spread in just seven of its 20 conference games this year.
FanDuel is the only one of our top sports betting sites offering a point spread slightly lower at +7.5, but this is a no-play at that number, and we are much more comfortable locking in any of the +8s we can find now.
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College basketball best bets made Tuesday at 6:21 a.m. ET.
Here are our best March Madness betting sites:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUS1000 | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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