The San Diego Padres (-120) visit Peoria Sports Complex to take on the Seattle Mariners (+100) on Monday, March 11, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Peoria, AZ.
This season, the Padres are 6-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 5-4 ATS.
Padres vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Padres vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s matchup with 54.5% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Taylor Kohlwey has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Taylor Kohlwey has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Taylor Kohlwey has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Brett Sullivan has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+5.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Sam Haggerty has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the RBIs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+3.45 Units / 69% ROI)
- Cooper Hummel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 56% ROI)
- Cooper Hummel has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 155 games (+17.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+12.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 77 away games (+7.65 Units / 8% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.09 Units / 36% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 61 games (+11.71 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.13 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 82 games (+8.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games at home (+8.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.10 Units / 60% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Padres are 6-7 against the Run Line (-1.85 Units / -11.29% ROI).
- 6-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.44 Units / -2.72% ROI
- 4-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -39.27% ROI
- 9-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.63 Units / 31.24% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mariners are 5-4 against the Run Line (+0.86 Units / 7.11% ROI).
- 2-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.66 Units / -48.96% ROI
- 8-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.82 Units / 68% ROI
- 1-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.75 Units / -79.32% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish threw his slider 49% of the time (227/464) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 99th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has an average spin rate of 2764.4 RPM on sliders since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2397.6 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents batted .455 (30-for-66) against Yu Darvish on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .350 — third Percentile.
Yu Darvish threw breaking pitches 54% of the time (252/464) when ahead in the count in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 97th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert walked 36 of 770 batters (5%) in the 2023 season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 91st Percentile.
Logan Gilbert allowed an OBP of just .270 (767 PA’s) in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — 95th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert threw his slider 44% of the time (229/525) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .272 against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 12th-best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– 90th Percentile. Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — worst among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– 0 Percentile.