The New York Mets (+125) visit Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (-150) on Friday, March 8, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:40pm EST in Jupiter, FL.

This season, the Mets are 5-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 4-5 ATS.

Mets vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Mets vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Friday‘s matchup with 52.1% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Bets Today:

• Starling Marte has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
• Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• Tim Locastro has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+1.05 Units / 52% ROI)
• Daniel Vogelbach has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 away games (+0.95 Units / 47% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Peyton Burdick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 80% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
• Jacob Amaya has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
• Jonathan Davis has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 60% ROI)
• Jacob Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.70 Units / 11% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 away games (+6.98 Units / 23% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+2.10 Units / 4% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this Spring Training, the Mets are 6-3 against the Run Line (+3.2 Units / 29.12% ROI).

• 5-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.34 Units / 2.67% ROI
• 0-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.64 Units / -77.64% ROI
• 7-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +7 Units / 70.14% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this Spring Training, the Marlins are 4-5 against the Run Line (-1.2 Units / -11.07% ROI).

• 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.7 Units / -39.66% ROI
• 2-7 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -57.35% ROI
• 7-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.95 Units / 51.56% ROI

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Severino had an ERA of 8.14 (48.2 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.42 — first Percentile.

Luis Severino allowed a slugging percentage of .450 (103 Total Bases / 229 ABs) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .310 — first Percentile.

Luis Severino allowed an OPS of .702 (230 PA’s) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .526 — second Percentile.

Luis Severino allowed a slugging percentage of .653 (179 Total Bases / 274 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .503 — first Percentile.

Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Eury Perez allowed a slugging percentage of .758 (47 Total Bases / 62 ABs) on inside fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .442 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 15% (19/129) against Eury Perez’s fastball in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 27% (63/233) against Eury Perez in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (27/52) against Eury Perez on inside fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

  
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