The Washington Nationals (+130) visit Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (-155) on Sunday, February 25, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:10pm EST in Jupiter, FL.
Last season, the Nationals were 71-91 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins were 74-90 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s matchup with 52.6% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Travis Blankenhorn has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Blake Rutherford has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jeter Downs has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.80 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 80% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Jacob Amaya has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Garrett Hampson has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 81 away games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 away games (+8.08 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games at home (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games at home (+8.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.64 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 67 games at home (+4.19 Units / 5% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last MLB season, the Nationals went 85-77 against the Run Line (-1.8 Units / -0.92% ROI).
- 71-91 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.55 Units / 11.15% ROI
- 77-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.9 Units / -4.41% ROI
- 77-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.95 Units / -3.92% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last MLB season, the Marlins went 74-90 against the Run Line (-35.7 Units / -16.31% ROI).
- 84-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -0.47% ROI
- 74-84 when betting on the total runs Over for -18 Units / -10.01% ROI
- 84-74 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.4 Units / 1.33% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has an average spin rate of 1971.5 RPM on sliders since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2397.6 — second Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore walked 22 of 168 batters (13%) versus the bottom of the order in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 36% (65/180) against MacKenzie Gore on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore threw fastballs 72% of the time (394/548) when behind in the count in the 2023 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 53% — 96th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
40% of Jesus Luzardo’s called strikeouts were elevated in the 2023 season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 91st Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo had an average fastball velocity of 96.8 MPH in the 2023 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 94.0 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 50% (181/361) against Jesus Luzardo on sliders in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of 50% (181/361) against Jesus Luzardo on breaking pitches in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.