There are a lot of really big lines this week. Is that part of the inevitable Week 2 overreaction phenomenon? Whatever the reason or explanation, many of these games look fishy to me. Seems like we are already dealing with some significant extremes, with the season barely underway. So you're not going to read much about a lot of those games here. I don't like them.
- More Week 1 picks: Model | Hartstein |'Pick 'em'| Survivor | Props |'DFS
There are a few games where I see some inviting potential, however. A few potential mismatches. Some teams badly in need of a bounce back, and some who already seem to be a little out of steam – and down on their luck – a mere week into the season. I'm going to focus on those.
Bengals -7 at Cowboys
Yeah, the Bengals still have some pass protection issues, but they aren't facing that Steelers defense this week. The Buccaneers found lots of joy by running away from Micah Parsons last week, and the Bengals will do the same here. Joe Burrow will get rid of the ball quickly if/when Parsons does break free, and the Cowboys will still be licking their wounds with Dak Prescott already out again. Cooper Rush won't muster much, and Dallas lacks difference-makers in the passing game anyway. Cincinnati's DL was a factor last week and will exploit a suspect Cowboys left tackle situation. Put me down for Bengals Over 26 points (+104) and over 2.5 TDs as well (-150). Rush's inexperience will lead to turnovers. I could see this snowballing.
Raiders -5.5 vs. Cardinals
Las Vegas didn't post nearly as many points as hoped, but moved the ball up and down the field on what might be a quality Chargers defense. Five sacks and three picks set them back, but the Cardinals defense looked flaccid and unimposing. The Raiders averaged 7.33 yards per first down play last week. It was pretty impressive, and Carr will learn not to favor Adams quite as much. The Raiders will generate pressure against a suspect Cardinals offensive line and I could see this Chandler Jones revenge game going as well as the Khalil Mack revenge game went against the Raiders last week. Vegas can run the ball too. The Cardinals are still a little beat up and I don't get a good vibe from them. Give me Raiders Over 3.5 touchdowns for +100 as well.
Patriots at Steelers Under 40.5
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