San Francisco and Kansas City face off on Super Bowl Sunday, and our 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction for Super Bowl 2024 based on the best NFL odds see the defending champion Chiefs outlasting the favorite 49ers.
Four years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers in the first championship victory of Patrick Mahomes' career. They meet again in a thrilling Super Bowl 2024 matchup at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Sunday, Feb. 11.
The 49ers have been the consensus title favorites by our Super Bowl odds for weeks, but the defending champion Chiefs have the world's best quarterback in Mahomes, who is the clear favorite by the Super Bowl MVP odds.
Mahomes led Kansas City's epic comeback win over San Francisco to hoist his first Lombardi Trophy in 2020, though he'll be an underdog next Sunday for the third straight game and fourth t ime in his postseason career. He won the previous three – including last year's Super Bowl against the Philadelphia Eagles – but can he survive a 49ers team fueled by that 2020 title loss?
In addition to our Super Bowl predictions and our best Super Bowl props, here is our best 49ers vs. Chiefs prediction for the Super Bowl and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
49ers vs. Chiefs prediction: 2024 Super Bowl
Best odds: -110 via bet365
I get why the 49ers are favored in this game. They were the better team throughout the regular season, and if our best Super Bowl betting sites don't price them as favorites, they'll get crushed by big-money bettors whose models will almost unanimously favor San Francisco.
The eye test tells a different story, though, as the Chiefs ha ve transformed from a concerningly flawed team in the regular season to one that seemingly has an answer for every challenge in the postseason.
In the first two rounds, Kansas City rode Isiah Pacheco and a bend-don't-break defense to a pair of impressive wins. In the AFC Championship, Mahomes diced the Ravens' top-ranked scoring defense with a barrage of short throws and perfectly placed deep balls, while Steve Spagnuolo dialed up pressure on likely MVP Lamar Jackson to perfection.
Should we expect anything less from Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid, who have combined to reach four Super Bowls in five years with two Lombardi Trophies already on the shelf? This is a team that has played its best football in January (and February) for a half-decade, and we're seeing the inevitable happen once again.
One of those Super Bowl wins came against these very Niners, who struck early but couldn't find an y answers in the fourth quarter in 2020. I'm expecting this version of San Francisco's offense to put up points – more on that below – but I'd be shocked if we don't see second-year passer Brock Purdy throw at least one interception (-105 via DraftKings), which is one of my best bets of Super Bowl 58.
Teams that win the turnover battle have gone 6-1 straight up this postseason, and while it's not quite that simple, I have a lot more faith in Mahomes and Co. to keep their powder dry on a stage they know well. There's been an inevitability to the Chiefs' success this decade, and they're finally playing like a champion this year, too.
Best odds: -115 via DraftKings
Immediately after Super Bowl 2024 odds were released, we recommended betting the Over for a game with two elite-caliber offenses that match up well with the other side. Clearly, we weren't the only ones, as John Ew ing of BetMGM shared Tuesday that the Over is the most popular choice by far among those betting the total:
There's some risk here if Spagnuolo completely flummoxes the 49ers' attack, but these teams faced off in 2020 with similar coaching staffs and combined for 51 points. In fact, they're cleared the 50-point mark in all three of their previous matchups since Mahomes became a starter in 2018.
San Francisco's offense is the best in the NFL by advanced metrics, and Mahomes is the best quarterback on the planet. I'm more confident in a Chiefs win than a high-scoring affair, but I've already wagered on both myself.
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Best Super Bowl odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs +2 | Chiefs +1.5 | Chiefs +2 | Chiefs +2 | Chiefs +2 |
| -110 | -105 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
The spread for Super Bowl 2024 has been on the move all week, but it's settled at Chiefs +2 across four of our five best sports betting sites, all of which are offering -110 odds on that wager.
Our choice among them is bet365, in part because of their generous cash-out options in the event this line takes a dramatic move in either direction. That's entirely a personal preference, though, and the near-consensus across the market spells the perfect opportunity to target the book with the best bonus offers.
I'd highly recommend checking out our best sportsbook promos, which should feature some of the best bonunses of the entire year ahead of Super Bowl 58.
49ers vs. Chiefs odds
49ers vs. Chiefs odds analysis
The 49ers opened at -2.5 over the Chiefs shortly after this Supe r Bowl 58 matchup was set. But the early action came in on the defending champions, who could be bet as short as +1 across our best sports betting apps within an hour of the NFC Championship ending.
Then came the buyback on the Niners, who are now dealing at +2 at four of our five best sportsbooks. I would expect this line to keep moving throughout the week, but if you're hoping for Chiefs +3, I wouldn't hold your breath.
Expect a ton of movement this week on both the spread and on the total, the latter of which is dealing between 47 and 47.5 across the board. That's a tick lower than we saw at opening, but it's aligned with the lookahead line of 47 before the AFC and NFC Championship.
Super Bowl game info
- When: Sunday, Feb. 11 at 6:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
- How to watch: CBS
- Weather: In doors
49ers-Chiefs prediction made Wednesday at 3:15 p.m. ET.
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